Going into game one of the Stanley Cup Finals one concern was would a long lay off hurt the Los Angeles Kings?
Los Angeles came into the finals with a 12-2 record and have looked more like a dominant number one seed instead of a number eight seed that clinched a playoff spot on the last weekend of the season.
However the Kings hadn't played since eliminating Phoenix eight days ago. There was speculation that the layoff could kill any momentum Los Angeles had.
Judging by the first 30 minutes of game one New Jersey looked like the team that hadn't played in eight days.
The Kings forecheck controlled the tempo of the game from the start with Colin Fraser getting the first goal, giving Los Angeles a 1-0 lead.
Through two periods the Devils only mustered eight shots on goal and were lucky to only be trailing 1-0. New Jersey needed a spark and they finally got one late in the 2nd period when Zach Parise got tangled up with goaltender Jonathan Quick in the Kings net.
While nothing came of the incident it did seem to wake up the Devils as Anton Volchenkov scored to tie the game at one going into the 2nd intermission.
From the start of the 3rd it looked like a totally different game than it did through the first two periods.
Los Angeles was playing like "We are the better team here. Let's put these guys away." while New Jersey started playing like "We have been outplayed for two periods and yet we have a chance to win this game."
Both teams had their chances in the 3rd to take the lead. At the ten minute mark New Jersey defenseman Mark Fayne had a wide open net to shoot at only to have the shot go wide.
I now know why he is a defenseman and not a forward.
The best chance for Los Angeles came three minutes later when Dustin Penner and Drew Doughty had an opportunity to score only to have Martin Brodeur stack the pads, denying the Kings the lead.
Game one would go to overtime and it would only take eight minutes before Anze Kopitar would win it for the Kings.
That breakaway was a thing of beauty.
The win gives Los Angeles a record of 9-0 on the road. More importantly the Kings are only three wins away from their first Stanley Cup.
As for New Jersey I'm not ready to write them off yet. Their game wasn't as sharp last night as it was in the previous round. Despite that the Devils had a chance to steal game one. With game two not until Saturday New Jersey will have some time to make whatever adjustments they need.
I expect the Devils to be much better on Saturday and even the series. If they aren't this could be done in four games.
Raise your hand if when the NHL season started you had the Los Angeles Kings playing the New Jersey Devils for the Stanley Cup.
Yeah, that's what I thought.
Back in October Los Angeles was thought to be at most the 5th best team in a loaded Western Conference while New Jersey was just coming off missing the playoffs for the first time since 1996.
But it's been a long journey from October to now and as it stands one of these two teams will hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. So who has the edge? There is only one way to break this down.
Let's go to the tale of the tape.
Forwards:
One reason why both of these teams are in the Stanley Cup Finals is because they can roll out four lines throughout an entire game no matter what the situation is.
The best forwards for Los Angeles have been Dustin Brown (7G, 9A) and Anze Kopitar (6G, 9A). Both players are a +13 on the ice which is the best for either team.
The Kings have also received nice contributions this post-season from Mike Richards (4G, 7A) Justin Williams (2G, 9A) and Dustin Penner (3G, 7A)
As for the 3rd and 4th lines for Los Angeles, they have been used in more of a shut down role where their forecheck smothers the opposition as they try to move the puck up the ice. They have provided quality minutes allowing the top two lines for the Kings to be productive when on the ice.
New Jersey's top forwards have been just as good as the Kings forwards. Ilya Kovalchuk leads all scorers in the playoffs with 18 points (7G, 11A) while Zach Parise and Travis Zajac are tied with Kovalchuk for the team lead in goals with seven.
Rookie Adam Henrique to me may be the most impressive forward in this series. He has three goals and eight assist with two of those goals being overtime game winners. He is a +9 on the ice which is the best among all Devils forwards.
The difference between the forwards for Los Angeles and
New Jersey is while the Kings 3rd and 4th lines can forecheck the
Devils 3rd and 4th lines can forecheck and score.
Against the Rangers the line of Ryan Carter, Steve Bernier and Stephen Gionta had four goals, five assists and were a +9 on the ice. That's pretty good production from a 4th line.
In fact you could make the case New Jersey really has two 3rd lines. Because of their bottom six I give the Devils the edge at forward.
Advantage: New Jersey.
Defenseman:
Let's start this by acknowledging that Los Angeles has the best defenseman in the series in Drew Doughty and it isn't even close.
This spring Doughty has two goals, eight assists and is a +10 on the ice. He is playing like a defenseman who will win numerous Norris Trophies before his career is over.
As for the rest of the Kings blueline, they have been pretty good too.
Los Angeles defenseman are a combined +36. The Kings worst defenseman from a statistical standpoint is Alec Matinez who has one assist and is a +2 on ice.
As for New Jersey they have actually received nice production from their blueline.
Bryce Salvador leads all defenseman in this series with 11 points (3G, 8A). That's pretty good for a guy who in the regular season had zero goals and nine assists in 82 games.
Marek Zidlicky has rejuvenated his career since joining New Jersey back in February. In the playoffs he has eight points (1G, 7A) and is a +1 on the ice. Not bad considering he only had 14 points with Minnesota and was a -6 on ice before being traded.
The rest of the Devils defense is a +30 combined on the ice. Both teams seem pretty similar here but I'll give the edge to Los Angeles because of Drew Doughty. New Jersey doesn't have anyone on their blueline that is nearly as good as him.
Advantage: Los Angeles
Goaltending:
The Los Angeles Kings wouldn't even be in the playoffs let alone the Stanley Cup Finals if not for the play of Jonathan Quick in net.
In the regular season Quick had the best GAA with 1.95 and his save percentage was .929, which was second among goaltenders who played in 60 plus games.
In the playoffs Quick leads all goaltenders with a GAA of 1.54 and a save percentage of .946. He also has two shutouts. In my mind Quick right now is the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Award.
And then there is Martin Brodeur.
At 40 years old many thought his best days were behind him. All he has done this post-season is be solid in net when New Jersey has needed him to allowing the Devils to reach their 5th Stanley Cup Finals.
Brodeur this post-season has a GAA of 2.04 and a save percentage of .923 both of which are slightly up from his career average of a 2.01 GAA and a save percentage of .919.
From a stats standpoint the edge would have to go to Quick since he has played better in net. However when you factor in the intangibles I still like Brodeur.
I know a lot of people say that Brodeur isn't has sharp as he was ten years ago. Not many people are
However if Brodeur had lost a step like people say he has then he wouldn't have been able to outlast Florida in seven games, he wouldn't have been able to handle the Flyers offense and he wouldn't have been able to out duel Henrik Lundqvist.
Brodeur has answered every challenge he has faced this season. Quick is good but until he out duels Brodeur I have to give the edge here to Marty.
Advantage: New Jersey
Power Play:
The Devils are 12 for 66 with the man advantage this post-season. Their power play percentage is 18.2 which is 4th best among playoff teams.
The Kings are 6 for 74 with the man advantage. Their power play percentage is 8.1. Only the Chicago Blackhawks were worse this post-season.
Los Angeles fans will tell me that Boston won the cup last year with a bad power play. To me that is the exception and not the norm.
The Kings need more production with the man advantage. The edge here goes to New Jersey and it isn't even close.
Advantage: New Jersey
Penalty Kill:
Los Angeles has only given up five short-handed goals in 57 opportunities this post-season. More impressively the Kings have scored five times while a man down. Their PK percentage is 91.2, second best in the playoffs.
New Jersey has allowed 16 power play goals in 62 chances this post-season. Their PK percentage is 74.2 which is 13th among playoff teams. The Devils also have one short-handed goal to their credit.
I have to give the edge to Los Angeles here. Their five short-handed goals are the most a playoff team has scored since Detroit scored six back in 2008.
Advantage: Los Angeles
Coaching:
Both Pete DeBoer and Darryl Sutter have done a remarkable job getting their teams to the finals. What's more remarkable is where each one was when the season started.
DeBoer had been let go by Florida as head coach and wasn't even on anybody's radar when he was hired by New Jersey back in July.
This season New Jersey finished with 102 points in the Atlantic, which is arguably the best division in the NHL, leading the Devils back to the playoffs after missing them the previous season.
In the playoffs his combination of a relentless forecheck and the ability to mix and match lines is why New Jersey is making their 5th appearance in the finals.
Sutter's job was a little more challenging since he took over in the middle of the season. Los Angeles was 15-14-4 before Sutter was hired as head coach just before Christmas. The Kings went 25-13-11 after he took over.
While Los Angeles didn't secure a playoff spot until the final days of the regular season the Kings have been on fire in the playoffs with a 12-2 record including a 9-0 record on the road.
Watching Los Angeles in the playoffs I see a lot of similarities between them and the 2004 Calgary Flames who were also coached by Sutter.
I'll give the edge here to Sutter only because he has accomplished more with the Kings in a shorter amount of time.
Advantage: Los Angeles
X-Factors:
Los Angeles forward Simon Gagne has been out of the lineup since right after Christmas due to a concussion. He has been cleared to resume skating and could play at some point in the finals.
Gagne has reached the 20 goals mark seven times in his twelve year career. His possible inclusion in the lineup would give the Kings 3rd line a scoring spark they could use against New Jersey.
For the Devils I think rookie defenseman Adam Larsson could play a big role in the finals.
Larsson has only played in five playoff games scoring a goal against Philadelphia and has been a +3 on the ice. Larsson is 6'3, 220 pounds. His size could be used to try and neutralize the Kings forwards.
Obscure Stanley Cup Fact:
This will be the first finals under the current playoff format, which started in 1994, that neither finalist will have had home ice before the finals.
In fact only one team under the current format has ever won the Stanley Cup without having home ice in the playoffs. That would be the 1995 New Jersey Devils who did it in a 48 game season.
As a Red Wings fan I hope that is the last time I have to mention this series. Sadly I'm sure I'll refer to it a few more times before the playoffs are over.
Previous meetings:
These two teams played twice back in October. The Devils won a shootout in New Jersey 2-1 back on October 13th. Two weeks later the Devils won in Los Angeles by a score of 3-0.
It must be noted that Brodeur left the first meeting with a shoulder injury while both Brodeur and Quick did not play in goal in the second meeting.
Prediction:
Both teams have had a remarkable run to the finals. While according to seeding they are underdogs Los Angeles and New Jersey are nowhere close to that.
The Kings have been on one of the most impressive runs I have seen a team have. It reminds me of a combination of Anaheim in 2003 and Calgary in 2004.
Yet as good as Los Angeles has been in the playoffs I keep coming back to one thing I wrote back in my preview of the Devils series against Philadelphia in regards to New Jersey GM Lou Lamariello.
"At the trade deadline the Devils GM had
to make a decision, trade Zach Parise and get something in return for
next season or keep Parise and try to make a run at the Stanley Cup.
One thing you need to understand about Lamariello, no GM has a better pulse of what his team is capable of.
The fact that he decided to keep Parise tells me he thinks the Devils can make a cup run."
Well New Jersey has done just that. Because of this and the fact I like Brodeur in net better than Quick I'm predicting Devils fans will be fist pumping in Newark and all across the Garden State as New Jersey wins their 4th Stanley Cup in franchise history.
Each spring 16 NHL teams play for
Lord Stanley's Cup. At the end one team is left holding the cup while
the other 15 teams can only think of what might have been. This is about one of the 15 teams who wasn't so lucky.
How They Finished:
51-24-7 109 points 1st in Atlantic Division, 1st in Eastern Conference. Lost in Conference Finals in six games
What Went Wrong:
The best forwards the entire season for New York were not their best forwards in the series against New Jersey.
When I say best forwards I'm referring to center Brad Richards and right wing Marian Gaborik.
Richards finished the playoffs as the points leader for the Rangers with 15 (6G, 9A). However in the series against the Devils he had zero goals, four assists and finished a -2 on the ice. If you are paying a guy $6.7 million for nine years a couple goals in this series would have been nice.
Speaking of goals that brings me to Marian Gaborik. Unlike Richards, Gaborik was able to find the back of the net in game five. That would be his only goal of the series.
In twenty playoff games this spring Gaborik only scored five goals. When you are making $7.5 million a year you aren't being paid to average a goal every four games.
New York is a team built around goaltending and defense. Their style is to play with the lead not come from behind. It's no coincidence that going back to game seven against Ottawa the Rangers won every game when they scored first and lost every game when they gave up the first goal.
New York needed more than what they got from Richards and Gaborik against New Jersey. I'm not placing all the blame on them for the Rangers losing the series. I'm just saying a little more production and this could have been New York winning in six games.
Where Do They Go From Here:
The last time New York came this close to playing for the Stanley Cup was 1997. That year the Rangers lost in five games in the Conference Finals to Philadelphia.
It would be another seven seasons before New York would return to the playoffs. That won't be the case this time.
The projected cap space for the Rangers is just over $16 million for next season. The main free agent on their roster they have to worry about is defenseman Michael Del Zotto who is restricted. I have to think both sides will have no problem working out a deal.
As for the rest of the roster I felt all season New York was one forward short of being a legit Stanley Cup contender. The Rangers may have found that forward this post-season in Chris Kreider.
In 18 playoff games Krieder finished with 5 goals and 2 assists. Not bad for a kid that was winning a national championship two months ago for Boston College. I expect him to have a bigger role next season for the Rangers.
Of course there are a couple other options on the table for New York.
One they could resume pursuit of Columbus forward Rick Nash. The Rangers were one of many teams linked to Nash at the trade deadline. No deal was made however as the price was too steep.
If New York does decide to pursue Nash the price will still be steep but it will be a lot easier to remake your roster in the off-season than it would be with six weeks to play in the regular season.
The other thing the Rangers could do is go after Zach Parise. Parise is scheduled to become a free agent this summer and New York is one of the teams frequently mentioned as a landing spot should he leave New Jersey.
Signing Parise would mean the Rangers wouldn't have to move a player like Krieder or Brandon Dubinsky, both of whom have been mentioned in any deal involving Nash.
New York hasn't been this close to a Stanley Cup since 1994. Their window is wide open right now and I expect whatever moves they make this summer will be only made with winning the cup in mind.
I expect the Rangers to be one of the best teams in the NHL next year. And I won't be surprised if they are raising Lord Stanley next June.
Tonight in New Jersey the Devils have the opportunity to eliminate the New York Rangers in six games and advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Sound Familiar?
It does if you are a fan of either of these two teams as exactly eighteen years ago to the day the situation was exactly the same as it is tonight.
Back in 1994 the New York Rangers were facing elimination when captain Mark Messier made a bold prediction saying the Rangers would win game six in New Jersey.
Messier was true to his words as he would score a hat trick in the Rangers 4-2 win over the Devils forcing game seven two nights later in Madison Square Garden.
Rangers fans are hoping history repeats itself while Devils fan would just prefer to end this series in six games and any parallels between this playoff match-up and the one back in 1994.
However there are no guarantees going into tonight's game as each team as tried to distanced itself as far away from the playoffs series in 1994.
On Thursday Rangers center Brad Richards said "No disrespect to history, but we're worried about ourselves,We want to create our own story and that's what we're here to do."
Devils coach Pete DeBoer added "I don't even think about '94, In '94 I still had hair. It was that long ago. That plays no part in what we're doing."
In fact there is only one player on each roster that has played in this series and the one in 1994, Devils goaltender Martin Brodeur.
Back in 1994 Brodeur was in his first season as the starting goaltender for New Jersey. Eighteen years later he has won three Stanley Cups, four Vezina trophies and has the most wins of any goaltender in NHL history.
In 29 other NHL building Brodeur will arguably go down as the greatest goaltender in NHL history. In Madison Square Garden though he will always be remembered for Matteau, Matteau, Matteau.
Brodeur won't come out and say it but I have to believe that part of him wants to win this series for no other reason than to put to rest what happened back in 1994.
Yes New Jersey has won three Stanley Cups since then but a win tonight would not only send the Devils back to the Finals it would finally give New Jersey bragging rights over their neighbors across the Hudson River.
When Messier made his prediction back in 1994 the whole hockey world took notice as he delivered. Current Rangers captain Ryan Callahan hasn't made any predictions on tonight's game as that isn't his style. He prefers to lead with actions not words.
Since he won't make a prediction I will.
If New Jersey is to win this series they better do it tonight in Newark. The last thing they want to do is give a talented team like New York one more chance to win the series in a game seven in Madison Square Garden.
They had an opportunity eighteen years ago to close out the series and they failed to do so. Eighteen years later I'm predicting history repeats itself.
New York wins tonight guaranteeing a game seven Sunday evening.
Each spring 16 NHL teams play for
Lord Stanley's Cup. At the end one team is left holding the cup while
the other 15 teams can only think of what might have been.
This is about one of the 15 teams who wasn't so lucky.
How They Finished:
42-27-13 92 points Won Pacific Division, Finished 3rd in Western Conference. Lost in Conference Finals to Los Angeles.
What Went Wrong:
Simply put the Los Angeles Kings were a better team.
That statement seems obvious when you lose a series in five games but if you took the time to watch both teams in this series it wasn't even close.
From the outset of game one the Kings used their relentless forecheck to smother Phoenix whenever they had the puck. Because of this the Coyotes had few chances offensively to score. When Jonathan Quick is the opposing goaltender you need all the chances you can get.
Speaking of Quick, that's another reason Phoenix's season has come to an end. Quick was better in net that his counterpart Coyotes goalie Mike Smith.
In my last blog I praised Smith for the job he had done in the playoffs for Phoenix. However he had to be the best player in the series if the Coyotes were to advance.
I thought Smith played well in two of the five games of the series. He was the best player on the ice in game four and he was very goo in game three in Los Angeles.
In the games in Phoenix I thought Smith was average at best. Being average in net wasn't going to be good enough for Phoenix to advance.
Where Do They Go From Here:
This is a very tricky question because of the perspectives of which it is asked.
From a team standpoint things look good. Phoenix has a projected cap space of just over $29 million for next season. More importantly the top players who produced this post-season for the Coyotes are all under contract for next year with the exception of Shane Doan and Ray Whitney.
I expect Doan to re-sign with Phoenix this off-season. He has been with the franchise since they moved from Winnipeg in 1996 and has become the face of the franchise in the desert.
Yes there will be a market for him if he isn't signed by July 1st but Doan was productive this season (22G, 28A) for the Coyotes. It would be a PR disaster if they let him leave as a free agent.
Whitney I'm not so sure about. He just turned 40 earlier this month. While he was the leading scorer this season for Phoenix (24G, 53A) there is always the possibility he may call it a career.
If Whitney does choose to play I'm sure he will be in high demand after the season he had. If it was any other team Whitney would probably have been re-signed already. Being that it's Phoenix though that isn't the case.
And that brings me to the other part of this question, where DO they go from here.
The Coyotes are still without an owner. Former San Jose Sharks CEO Greg Jamison is now the front-runner to buy the hockey club. By my count this is the 4th person/group to attempt to buy the club since it was put on the market four seasons ago.
The problem isn't so much finding an owner as it is getting through all the bureaucratic tape involving the city of Glendale to operate the hockey club.
I know the NHL is very adamant about making this work in Phoenix but at some point they have to say enough is enough. The NHL can't be happy about putting money into a club year after year with nothing to show for it.
There are a couple cities in North America (Quebec City, Seattle) that I think would love to have an NHL franchise. I don't see this situation like the one in Atlanta last year where the Thrashers moved to Winnipeg because there is a prospective buyer who wants to keep the Coyotes in Arizona.
However if Jamison's group can't work around the bond issue that has plagued the sale of this club I can easily see him walking away from buying the team. If he walks away I can see the NHL selling the Coyotes to the highest bidder with the franchise relocating somewhere else.
In the meantime while ownership remains in limbo it effects any personnel moves the franchise can make.
GM Don Maloney has done a terrific job with this roster the last three seasons. This year Phoenix finally broke through and won their first playoff series in 25 years en route to the Western Conference Finals.
While I'm skeptical of the Coyotes doing it again next year I have learned not to doubt coach Dave Tippett and his coaching staff. Phoenix can't control what happens off the ice they can only control what happens on the ice.
Under Tippett and Maloney that should be enough for them to contend for a playoff spot once again.
On Sunday Afternoon fans in Los Angeles converged at Staples Center ready for a celebration.
Up three games to none in the Western Conference Finals the expectation was the Kings would win game four, putting Phoenix out of their misery and move on to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 1993.
The Coyotes however had other plans.
With their backs against the wall Phoenix played their best game of the series as they defeated Los Angeles 2-0.
Leading the way was captain Shane Doan who got the Coyotes on the board with a power play goal in the 1st period.
Doan would come up big again in the 2nd period when his wrist shot would beat Jonathan Quick. The shot happened so fast that nobody was sure Doan actually scored.
After video review it was confirmed that Doan did score and with that Phoenix would have a 2-0 lead. That would be all Mike Smith would need as he turned away all 36 shots he faced.
Now I've been skeptical of Smith all post-season. Looking at his track record as a goaltender you can hardly blame me as he has been less than spectacular in his career.
However Smith has come up big in the playoffs when the Coyotes needed him. In Phoenix's first round series against Chicago, Smith faced a barrage of shots throughout game six but turned away all 39 shots en route to a 4-0 win in the series clinching victory.
In game four against Nashville Smith stopped all 25 shots he faced for his second shut out of the playoffs, a 1-0 win that kept Nashville from gaining any momentum and gave the Coyotes a 3-1 lead in the series. Yesterday with Phoenix facing elimination Smith made 36 saves for his 3rd shutout of the post-season.
All year long I have been waiting for the clock to strike midnight and for Smith to turn back into a pumpkin. I still think it's only a matter of time before that happens but I must give him credit. Whenever the Coyotes have needed Smith to come up big he has for them.
Game five is Tuesday night in Phoenix. Despite the win yesterday I still think the Coyotes are fighting an uphill battle. In game four the Kings forecheck that had suffocated Phoenix during the first three games was non-existing. I don't expect that to be the case in game five.
Another thing to remember is that game five is back in Phoenix. Los Angeles is a perfect 7-0 on the road in the playoffs this year. Darryl Sutter will have his team ready to play tomorrow night and I expect the Kings to wrap up this series in five games.
However if Smith can come up big in net for one more game then doubt starts to creep in and the thought of a comeback isn't so far-fetched.
Each spring 16 NHL teams play for
Lord Stanley's Cup. At the end one team is left holding the cup while
the other 15 teams can only think of what might have been.
This is about one of the 15 teams who wasn't so lucky.
How They Finished:
42-32-8 92 points 2nd in Southeast Division, 7th in Eastern Conference. Lost in seven games to New York.
What Went Wrong:
To answer that question you need to go back to the end of game five.
Washington had a 2-1 lead when forward Joel Ward was called for a high sticking penalty on New York forward Carl Hagelin. Ward's stick ended up cutting open Hagelin's face with the result being a double minor.
As a result the Rangers had a four minute power play. In the Capitals favor was there was only 21 seconds to play in the game so all they had to do was kill the penalty and Washington would have a 3-2 lead in the series with game six being in D.C.
Instead Brad Richards, who was the prize free agent acquisition last summer, came up clutch scoring the game tying goal with eight seconds to play.
Not only would that goal force overtime but New York would still be on the power play because of the double minor. As they did at the end of regulation the Rangers would take advantage in overtime thanks to Marc Staal.
As a result New York snatches victory from the jaws of defeat winning the game 3-2 and taking the series lead 3-2. Washington would win game six on home ice but they would come up short in game seven.
Now I'm not going to say Joel Ward is the reason Washington lost the series. He wasn't. Remember if not for his goal in game seven against Boston the Capitals might not even be playing in this series.
The penalty that Ward took could have happened to anybody on the ice. That's hockey. Things like this happen all the time on the ice. This penalty just happened to come at the worst possible time for Washington.
I'm not saying the Capitals would have won the series had they held on to win game five but I sure liked their chances better being up 3-2 than down 3-2 in the series.
Where Do They Go From Here:
This should make for an interesting summer in the beltway.
Right after Thanksgiving GM George McPhee deciding to make a coaching change firing Bruce Boudreau and bringing in Dale Hunter.
With the coaching change Washington went from being an offensive minded hockey team to one that stresses playing defense first. The results however were the same as they lost in the 2nd round for the third time in four seasons.
Yesterday it was announced that Dale Hunter would not return as head coach of the team. That's not a complete surprise as rumors swirled around for most of the year that this was a temporary deal for him.
The dilemma McPhee has now is does he go with a coach that stresses offense or one that stresses defense? Keep in mind that Alex Ovechkin is under contract for the next nine seasons.
I'll give Ovechkin credit for not openly complaining about his ice time under Hunter. Of course part of that may be he knew Hunter wasn't coming back and he decided to ride this season out.
Whoever McPhee hires to coach this team will have to find a balance between Boudreau's team and Hunter's team. The good thing for McPhee is there are plenty of qualified coaching candidates out there that would love to have a chance to coach the Capitals.
As for the team next year their projected cap space is set at just over $19 million. Of their unrestricted free agents it sounds like Alexander Semin is set to test the free agent market.
To me Semin has always been one of those players with a lot of raw talent but you never seem to get what you need out of him. With a pricetag of at least $6.7 million Washington might just let him skate away.
As for the other UFA's the Capitals have I can see them bringing back Mike Knuble and Dennis Wideman, especially if Semin doesn't return. Jeff Halperin could return as well depending on what his asking price is on the free agent market.
Two free agents that won't be returning are goaltenders Tomas Vokoun and Dany Sabourin. The reason for that is because of the emrgence of Braden Holtby.
Holtby was spectacular in the playoffs finishing with a GAA of 1.95 and a save percentage of .935. His play in net gave the Capitals a chance to win every game they played this post-season. He'll have a good chance to win the starting job in September when he competes with Michal Neuvirth.
This is a critical summer for Washington as they are no longer the team to beat in the Southeast Division. Florida are the defending champions while Winnipeg, Tampa Bay and Carolina should be much improved from a year ago.
The Capitals should still be a playoff team as their nucleus is still strong but as this season proved it is no longer a given.
After New York's 2-1 win over Washington the Conference Finals are finally set to begin.
Out east you have the New Jersey Devils playing the New York Rangers in a match-up that will feature several flashbacks to 1994 when they last met in the conference finals.
We'll get to that series later in the column but we will start our coverage in of all places the desert. That looks so strange to type in a hockey column.
8. Los Angeles Kings vs. 3. Phoenix Coyotes.
When the playoffs started hockey fans thought teams like Vancouver, St. Louis, Detroit or Nashville would be here playing for the Clarence Campbell Bowl.
Instead you have a red-hot Kings team that has beat the top two seeds in the conference in convincing fashion taking on a Coyotes teams that has played just as well.
Why Los Angeles Will Win:
There are two things I like about the Kings in the match-up.
The first thing is their goaltender Jonathan Quick. Quick has a GAA this post-season of 1.55 and a save percentage of .949 which is the best of the four remaining goaltenders.
Most importantly Quick's play in net gives Los Angeles confidence that if they can get just one goal that is all they need to win the game.
The other thing I like is how the top six forwards for the Kings have played in the first two rounds.
Los Angeles came into the playoffs scoring the fewest goals of any of the playoff teams. In the playoffs they are averaging three goals per game and the reason for that is their top six forwards are scoring goals when the team needs one.
Leading the way is Kings captain Dustin Brown who leads the team in goals with six and points with eleven. He has elevated his play to a level I have never seen him play at.
Once thought of as a captain who had the "C" because somebody had to have it Brown has led by example on the ice with his play and the Kings have followed suit as they dispatched of both the Canucks and Blues in quick fashion.
Why Phoenix Will Win:
If you have followed the playoffs you'll know the Coyotes have a good goalie of their own in Mike Smith.
Signed as a reclamation project in the off-season Smith made the most of his opportunity finishing with a GAA of 2.21 and a save percentage of .930.
In the playoffs Smith has continued his great play. His GAA this post-season is 1.77 and his save percentage is .948. Only Quick has had better stats in goal. Smith also has two shutouts which leads all goaltenders this post-season.
Another reason to like the Coyotes is because of coach Dave Tippett.
Tippett is one of those coaches that is able to get the most out of his team. It's no easy task considering that a shadow has been hanging over the team the last few seasons as to whether the coyotes would be moving from the Phoenix area.
While that issue has yet to be resolved Tippett has been able to get his players to focus on the ice where they can control the action dispatching of Chicago in six and Nashville in five games.
Prediction:
Both teams have played well in the playoffs winning their series convincingly. In a match-up like this it comes down to goaltending.
As well as Smith has played I still don't completely trust him in net. I have a hard time believing a goaltender who couldn't seize the job last year in Tampa Bay can be four wins away from playing for the Stanley Cup. Facing the Kings forwards will be his toughest test this post-season.
Meanwhile Quick has made it look easy against Vancouver and St. Louis. I don't think this series will be easy for him as Tippett's team will overachieve but in the end I think the Kings will return to the finals for the first time in 18 years.
Kings in six.
6. New Jersey Devils vs. 1. New York Rangers:
This series will bring back numerous flashbacks of 1994 with the names Messier and Matteau being mentioned Ad Naseum however these teams couldn't be any different than they were seventeen years ago.
The Devils are a team that applies an aggressive forecheck to establish puck possession while the Rangers are a team built on goaltending and defense.
Why New Jersey Will Win:
The Devils used their forecheck to shut down and frustrate a Philadelphia offense that looked invincible against Pittsburgh in the first round. They should be able to do the same against a Rangers team that isn't as strong offensively as the Flyers were.
Another thing New Jersey has going for them is they are getting production from all four lines with at least seven players scoring a game winning goal.
While the likes of Scott Stevens or Scott Niedermayer no longer skate for the Devils they still have veterans Martin Brodeur who has won three Stanley Cups and Patrik Elias who has won two with the franchise.
They have been down this road before and their experience should provide a calming influence and leadership for a roster of players who are making it this far for the first time.
Why New York Will Win:
The more I watch this Rangers team the more they remind me of the 2004 Tampa Bay Lightning. That's not coincidental as John Tortorella was the coach of that team with Brad Richards playing a key role at forward.
In New York they are doing the same thing as Tampa Bay did back in 2004 mixing timely goal scoring with goaltending and defense.
Let's start in net with Henrik Lundqvist. His GAA is 1.68 and he has a save percentage of .937 through fourteen games. His stats may not be as good as Quick and Smith and his pedigree is nowhere near Brodeur but right now out of the four goaltenders there is no one I would want more in net than Lundqvist.
Another thing to like about the Rangers is their core of defenseman which is deeper than New Jersey. Four of their six regular defenseman are on the positive side of the plus/minus ratings.
While the Devils can skate four solid lines John Tortorella doesn't need to worry about which defensive pairing he has to match up against because his defenseman are good enough to play against any line they go up against.
Up front New York's best forwards have been their best forwards. Brad Richards leads the team in goals and points (6G, 5A) while Marian Gaborik has four goals followed by Ryan Callahan with three. The biggest x-factor in all this might be rookie Chris Krieder.
Fresh out of winning a national championship at Boston College Krieder has stepped into the line-up replacing an injured Brian Boyle and Brandon Dubinsky to make an impact.
Krieder has two goals and an assist in the playoffs so far but he is being given quality minutes on the ice by Tortorella. That is something most coaches are hesitant to do with a rookie. Especially in the post-season.
Prediction:
These two teams had a meeting back in March that looked like a scene out of the movie SlapShot.
I don't think you will see anything like that in the Conference Finals with a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals at stake but I do expect this series to be rough and I do expect it to be physical.
For the Devils this is a chance to get payback for 1994. Yes I know they have won three Stanley Cups since then but the Rangers have eliminated them in three of the last four playoff series.
As much as I love New Jersey for knocking Philadelphia out of the playoffs I think the Rangers are a more talented team overall. In the end I think history repeats itself.
Each spring 16 NHL teams play for
Lord Stanley's Cup. At the end one team is left holding the cup while
the other 15 teams can only think of what might have been.
This is about one of the 15 teams who wasn't so lucky.
How They Finished:
47-26-9 103 points 3rd in Atlantic Division, 5th in Eastern Conference. Lost in 2nd Round.
What Went Wrong:
Philadelphia did not take New Jersey seriously.
In the 1st round of the playoffs the Flyers had their way with the Pittsburgh Penguins, a team many felt (myself included) were the team to beat in the playoffs.
After disposing the Penguins in six games Philadelphia felt that they were now the team to beat.
Flyers defenseman Kimmo Timonen went as far to say
"After the Pittsburgh series I really thought this is our chance. Look at the teams that were out & look at the teams that were in. I think every team that was in is beatable."
Instead after a seven day layoff Philadelphia came out in game one against New Jersey and proceeded to get out shot 15-6. The Flyers would play better as the game went on eventually winning 4-3 in overtime.
In game two the Flyers got off to another good start, taking a 1-0 lead. In the 2nd period however New Jersey's forecheck was established and Philadelphia had no answer for it.
Goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov did his best to keep the Flyers on top for two periods but the Devils finally broke through scoring four unanswered goals in the 3rd period to win the game 4-1 and even the series at one game a piece.
Things didn't get any better for Philadelphia when they went to New Jersey as they lost game three in overtime by a score of 4-3 thanks to this goal by Alexei Ponikarovsky.
In game four the Devils rallied from a two goal deficit in the 1st period en route to a 4-2 win. In the game the Flyers used the same game plan they used against Pittsburgh in the 1st round and that was to do everything they could to get under the Devils skin causing them to lose their composure.
Instead New Jersey never took the bait and kept their composure throughout the entire game. Because of this the Flyers lost their composure with the most noticeable incident involving star player Claude Giroux.
As a result of the hit Giroux was suspended for game five of the series. The Flyers were able to score first but the Devils would tie the game thanks to a goal from Bryce Salvador.
Just over three minutes later New Jersey would take the lead as Ilya Bryzgalov tried to clear the puck only to have it bounce off the shaft of Devils forward David Clarkson and through his legs.
What a mistake. That goal would give New Jersey a lead they would not relinquish as they went on to win the game 3-1 and the series 4-1 ending the Flyers season.
Where Do They Go From Here:
Last year when Philadelphia was swept by Boston that led to sweeping changes throughout the locker room.
Forwards Jeff Carter and Mike Richards were traded away so the Flyers could sign Ilya Bryzgalov to a nine year deal worth $51 million dollars. After this past year though Philadelphia might have a case of buyer's remorse.
In all fairness to Bryzgalov he wasn't horrible this season. His GAA was 2.48, exactly the same as last year in Phoenix and his save percentage was .909. That was playing with a patchwork defense in front of him.
The reason Bryzgalov gets a lot of grief is because of his appearance on 24/7 Road To the Winter Classic.
We all know goaltenders are out there but until now we never knew how far out there they were.
There might be no other position in all of hockey that's under the microscope more than being the goaltender in Philadelphia. After watching Bryzgalov this past season I'm not sure he will be able to handle the pressure of playing goal for the Flyers.
Philadelphia fans are stuck with "Mr. Universe" in net for the near future as he has eight years left on his contract with the cap hit being at $5.67 million. In other words, he isn't going anywhere.
To make matters worse the projected cap space for the Flyers next year is around $3 million. Any changes to the roster will depend on the health of defenseman Chris Pronger.
Pronger missed most of the season with a concussion. As a result Philadelphia GM Paul Holmgren had to remake the Flyers defense on the fly.
Pronger status going into next year will have to be a factor in any roster moves Holmgren makes. If Pronger can't play Philadelphia can put him on long term injured reserve which would free up nearly $5 million in cap space.
Even if Pronger goes on LTIR I don't see the Flyers being active in the free agent market for Ryan Suter or Zach Parise as most of their money is tied up in Scott Hartnell, Danny Briere, and Kimmo Timonen. Hartnell has a no trade clause while Briere and Timonen have no movement clauses.
As a result of their contract issues I don't see any of the unrestricted free agents on the roster re-signing before July 1st. Jaromir Jagr, Pavel Kubina and Matt Carle all made this season more than what the projected cap space is for next season.
The good news for Philadelphia is the young players in their lineup this season all had a positive impact. More will be expected from them going forward as they will play a bigger role in the lineup if the Flyers are unable to bring back Jagr, Kubina or Carle.
During the summer I thought Holmgren took a big risk by trading away Carter and Richards. I can't say it worked out for Philadelphia as they won one more playoff game than they did last year while Carter and Richards are preparing to play in the Western Conference Finals.
But the players acquired for Carter and Richards all had a good first season in Philadelphia. The Flyers will still be a playoff team going into next year and if Holmgren can remake the defense and Bryzgalov can settle down and be more consistent then Philadelpha will have a chance to end their Stanley Cup drought.
In the meantime with New Jersey ending the Flyers season I think Puck Daddy (and huge Devils fan) Greg Wyshynski said it best on twitter.
Each spring 16 NHL teams play for
Lord Stanley's Cup. At the end one team is left holding the cup while
the other 15 teams can only think of what might have been.
This is about one of the 15 teams who wasn't so lucky.
How They Finished:
48-26-8 104 points 2nd in Central Division, 4th in Western Conference. Lost in five games in the 2nd Round.
What Went Wrong:
To answer this question you need to go back to game one and start in the 3rd period.
Nashville out shot Phoenix 16-1 in the 3rd period eventually tying the game on a power play goal by Martin Erat to force overtime.
In the overtime the Coyotes were able to withstand the onslaught by the Predators, winning the game on a goal by Ray Whitney.
From that point Phoenix was in complete control of the series. They outplayed Nashville in game two, winning by a score of 5-3, taking a 2-0 series lead back to the Music City.
Unfortunately for the Predators what happened off the ice ended up overshadowing the team.
Sometime between games one and two forwards Andrei Kostitsyn and Alexander Radulov were out way past the team curfew. As a result they were suspended in game three.
At the time of the suspension I wrote that Nashville should be able to overcome this for one game as they played most of the year without both players and were pretty good before they joined the team roster. That proved to be true as the Predators won game three by a score of 2-0.
After game three everyone thought the point had been made with Kostitsyn and Radulov and both players would be back in the lineup. That was not the case however as head coach Barry Trotz held both players out of the lineup for game four as well.
Phoenix would get the only goal of the game from Shane Doan in the 1st period and hold on for a 1-0 win and a 3-1 lead in the series. In a series where goals were hard to come by both players could have only helped Nashville in game four.
Kostitsyn and Radulov would return for game five but neither player would have an impact as Phoenix took a 2-0 lead thanks to goals by Derek Morris and Martin Hanzal. The Coyotes would go on to win the game 2-1 and the series 4-1.
Where Do They Go From Here:
When answering that question you need to start on the blueline with defenseman Ryan Suter.
Suter is an unrestricted free agent this summer. The moves Nashville made at the trade deadline were to show him they were serious about making a run for a Stanley Cup hoping that would entice him to stay.
Instead the Predators are eliminated in the second round for the second year in a row. Suter will have to ask himself if Nashville is the best place to win a Stanley Cup.
Suter made $3.5 million last season. On the open market he can probably can make twice as much over the next six to seven years.
The good news for Nashville is their projected cap space going into next season is just over $32 million. If Suter wants to stay in Nashville they are able to pay him the money.
The only problem for the Predators is if they commit a lot of money to Suter what does that do for his partner on the blueline Shea Weber?
Weber is a restricted free agent who made $7.5 million last season. The scenario that should concern Predators fans is a team signing Shea Weber to an offer sheet forcing Nashville to either match the offer or receive draft picks as compensation.
If you look at their salary cap situation right now the Predators have only twelve players under contract for next season. I don't see Nashville addressing any of their other free agents until they figure out what happens with Suter or Weber. A good chuck of that $32 million in cap space will belong to one of the two defenseman.
The best case scenario for the Predators is that Suter decides to stay in the Music City before July 1st allowing Nashville to focus on their other free agents. History shows however that once you get this close to free agency, you test the market to see what your worth is.
If Nashville are able to keep both defenseman then they are a threat once again to contend for the Stanley Cup. if they keep one of the two they are probably still at worst a playoff team. If they lose both then the Predators will have to fight for a spot in the playoffs next year.
I don't see Nashville losing both Weber and Suter in the off season but I also don't see both of them returning next year. I'll have a better idea of Nashville next year when I know which defenseman stays with the team.
The most thankless job in the NHL has to belong to Brendan Shanahan.
Shanahan, who is the NHL's Vice President of Hockey and Business Development took over from Colin Campbell as the league's player disciplinarian. He is responsible for handing out fines & suspensions for on-ice shenanigans.
It's a thankless job where when you make a decision on a player one side will argue the punishment was too stiff and the other side will argue the punishment wasn't strong enough.
This year all eyes were on Shanahan as players and executives were watching to see how he handled discipline compared to his predecessor.
Shanahan was aggressive early in the season with the most notable suspension being the one handed out on Columbus James Wisniewski's hit on Minnesota forward Cal Clutterbuck which resulted in an eight game suspension.
But as the season went on it became harder to figure out what warranted a suspension and what was worthy of a fine as Shanahan's decisions were inconsistent with what his rulings were earlier in the year.
I bring this topic up now because of an incident that happened in Newark Sunday night between Philadelphia and New Jersey. One that's going to cause me to do something I'm never do.
I'm going to stand up for a Philadelphia Flyer.
Near the end of the 2nd period Flyers forward Claude Giroux laid a hit on Devils forward Danius Zubrus as they were going for the puck. The hit resulted with Giroux's shoulder hitting Zubrus's head.
As a result of the hit Giroux was given a penalty for contact to the head. I have no problem with Giroux being penalized on the play. On Monday afternoon we found out Giroux would be suspended for game five of the series with Philadelphia facing elimination.
I have a problem with the suspension.
When you look at the hit at full speed it looks vicious but when you slow it down the hit looks more like two players getting tangled up as they are fighting for the puck.
Now compare that hit to what Nashville defenseman Shea Weber did to Detroit forward Henrik Zetterberg in game one of their first round series.
Weber, who is a repeat offender was only given a $2,500 fine which is the most you can fine a player according to the CBA for slamming Zetterberg's head into the glass.
Meanwhile Giroux, who has a clean record is forced to sit out a game because his shoulder made contact with Zubrus's head.
One of the reasons Weber wasn't suspended was because Zetterberg was OK after the hit and was able to play in game two. Zubrus did come back to play in the 3rd period and eventually scored the game winning goal for New Jersey.
So why was Giroux suspended then? We'll let Brendan Shanahan explain here.
After hearing Shanahan's reasoning I can understand why he gave Giroux a one game suspension. I can't say I agree with it though. Especially after superstars like Weber, Evgeni Malkin, & Alex Ovechkin have committed worse infractions on hits this post-season only to be given a slap on the wrist.
The two minute penalty and a fine should have been sufficient enough as a punishment for Giroux as Zubrus was able to play in the rest of the game. Instead the Flyers best player has to miss game five of the series with his team facing elimination.
It's not so much the ruling I have a problem with. I just want some consistency when these punishments are being handed out.
Each spring 16 NHL teams play for
Lord Stanley's Cup. At the end one team is left holding the cup while
the other 15 teams can only think of what might have been.
This is about one of the 15 teams who wasn't so lucky.
How They Finished:
49-22-11 109 points 1st in Central Division, 2nd in Western Conference. Lost in 2nd round.
What Went Wrong:
When you get swept in a four game series it's not hard to see what went wrong.
But when you look at the season St. Louis had it's hard to understand how a team this good could look so bad against a number eight seed.
The first thing to remember is the Kings aren't your normal number eight seed. They went into the final weekend of the NHL season with a chance to win the Pacific Division. A couple breaks in their final two games against San Jose and Los Angeles may have been a three seed and not playing the Blues in the second round.
In the series against the Kings, St. Louis forwards were not as dominant as they were in the regular season.
The only forwards that had any impact in the series for the Blues were David Backes (1G, 2A) David Perron (0G, 2A) Andy McDonald (1G, 1A) and Chris Stewart (2 goals)
Look at those numbers compared to the numbers put out by the Los Angeles forwards.
Dustin Penner (1G 4A)
Mike Richards (2G 3A)
Dustin Brown (2G 5A)
Anze Kopitar (2G 4A)
Jeff Carter (1G 1A)
Justin Williams (2G 1A)
St. Louis's defense had no answers for the Kings top six forwards as they were able to do what they wanted in the offensive zone. Los Angeles scored first in all four games and the Blues forwards were unable to do anything against the Kings defense.
With that big of a difference in scoring between the teams top forwards it's not hard to see why St. Louis only lasted four games against Los Angeles.
But I can't lay all the blame on the Blues forwards. Some blame has to go on goaltender Brian Elliott.
While Elliott had a good regular season splitting time with Jaroslav Halak he had to carry the load against the Kings due to Halak being unavailable because of injury.
Instead of being the goaltender that is a candidate for the Jennings Award, Elliott looked ordinary in net against Los Angeles.
He gave up four goals in the first period of game two which the Kings won comfortably 5-2. Then in game three, a game which St. Louis needed to win Elliott played what I think was his worst game of the playoffs.
All you have to do is go to the 2:30 mark on the highlights below and the final Kings goal in game three will tell you everything you need to know about Elliott's performance.
The Blues are built as a team that needs to have the lead to be successful, not a team that can come from behind. St. Louis never had the lead at any point in the series and that is why they are done in four games.
Where Do They Go From Here:
Despite being swept in the second round the St. Louis Blues have to consider this season a success.
They started the season 6-7 which resulted in Ken Hitchcock taking over as coach of the team. From that point the Blues won 43 games resulting in their first division title since 2000. 30 of their 49 wins came on home ice which was the second best record in the NHL.
Not bad for a team that has made the playoffs once since the lockout.
The Blues projected cap space going into next season is a little over $28 million.
Most of that money will probably be used to sign forwards Chris Stewart, TJ Oshie & David Perron. Of those three I think Perron is the most likely to stay. I think Stewart and Oshie will return as well but I could also see both available on the trade market this summer.
On defense both Barrett Jackman and Carlo Colaiacovo are unrestricted free agents. My guess is both will be back with the Blues next year although it depends on what happens with the forwards mentioned above.
If it came down to picking one of the two defenseman my guess is the Blues re-sign Jackman and let Colaiacovo hit the free agent market.
The good news is a lot of the core players will return next year for St. Louis and Ken Hitchcock will be behind the bench for a full season.
The Blues may have surprised some people this season. That won't happen next year. But if they were good enough to win the Central Division this season they should be in the hunt next year.
More importantly this loss in the playoffs may make St. Louis hungrier next spring and that could be dangerous for the rest of the NHL.
