Thursday, April 14, 2011

Round one predictions: Part two

The Stanley Cup Playoffs got underway last night & all five games went the way I thought they would.

Chicago opened up defense of their Stanley Cup in Vancouver but the Canucks got goals from Chris Higgins & Jannik Hansen to give Vancouver a 2-0 win & a 1-0 lead in their best of seven series. Roberto Luongo came up big stopping all 32 shots.

Detroit fell behind Phoenix early 1-0 but were able to kill off numerous penalties before Pavel Datsyuk & Johan Franzen scored in the 2nd period giving the Wings a lead they would not relent en route to a 4-2 win & a 1-0 lead in their best of seven series.

In a battle of great defense vs great offense defense came through in Game one in Nashville's 4-1 win over Anaheim. Mike Fisher scored twice & Pekka Rinne made 27 saves in the win for the Predators. Teemu Selanne scored in a losing effort for the Ducks.

In the East Alex Semin scored his first playoff goal in 15 games to give the Capitals a 2-1 win in overtime over the New York Rangers. Matt Gilroy scored the 1st goal of the game for New York before Alexander Ovechkin tied the game late in the 3rd period to force overtime.

Pittsburgh continues to play well without Sidney Crosby & Evgeni Malkin. Alexei Kovalev & Aaron Asham scored goals 18 seconds apart & Marc-Andre Fleury stopped all 32 shots he faced to lead the Penguins to a 3-0 win over Tampa Bay. The Lightning dropped to 0-5 when opening a playoff series on the road.

That's a quick rundown about what happened last night. We have three more games tonight which means three more sets of 1st round predictions. We'll start in the east. 

7. Buffalo vs. 2. Philadelphia 

Season series: 2-1-1 Philadelphia. 

Why Philadelphia will win: 

The Flyers are the deepest team in the East. They can roll out four lines at forward that can match-up with whoever they play against.

They have seven players on their roster that scored at least 20 goals this season lead by Jeff Carter who had 36 on the season.

The additions of Sean O'Donnel & Andrej Mezaros made a good core of defenseman even stronger. If Chris Pronger is healthy it's like having a 2nd goalie on the ice.

Plus the Flyers feel they have unfinished business after making it to The Stanley Cup Finals last season only to fall short in six games. 

Why Buffalo will win: 

The Sabres finished the season as one of the hottest teams in the NHL going 16-4-4 down the stretch & are 29-11-6 since Terry Pegula took over as owner of the club.

The Sabres were also quietly one of the best offensive teams in the NHL finishing 9th in the league with 240 goals. That something to keep in mind if Pronger misses a lot of time with his injury.

One other area Buffalo has an edge is in goal where Ryan Miller is playoff tested while Sergei Bobrovsky is making his playoff debut. It doesn't guarantee a win for Buffalo but if you know the goaltending history of both clubs you know why the Sabres have the edge here. 

Prediction: Buffalo was one of the hottest teams down the stretch while Philadelphia had their struggles at the end of the season. Plus the Sabres always play the Flyers tough in the playoffs. I like Buffalo to pull the upset.

Sabres in 6. 

6. Montreal vs. 3. Boston 

Season series: 4-2 Montreal. 

Why Montreal will win: 

Because they have Boston's number. This is the 33rd time these two teams have met in the playoffs. Montreal has won 24 of the previous 32 meetings. Even when Boston has had better clubs Montreal has found a way to win in the playoffs.

Another thing to factor in is the playoff atmosphere in Montreal plus the tension lingering from the Zdeno Chara hit on Max Pacioretty could be enough to give the Canadiens an emotional lift over the Bruins. 

One player to keep an eye on in this series is P.K. Subban. I had a chance to watch him a month ago against Minnesota & I walked away very impressed. I have a feeling he will have a big impact in this series. 

Why Boston will win: 

Tim Thomas has been the best goalie in the NHL this year. Thomas finished with the best goals against average (2.00) & the best save percentage (.938) Add in the strength of Zdeno Chara on the blueline & you have a Bruins team that can be very difficult to score against.

One reason the Bruins failed in the playoffs last season is injuries finally caught up to them. Other than Marc Savard the Bruins come in to the playoffs healthy. The acquisition of Nathan Horton in the off-season & Chris Kelly at the deadline gives them depth at center they didn't have last season. 

Prediction: There is a lot I like about the Bruins this season. They are a trendy Stanley Cup pick & would probably do well against most teams in the East. However the Canadiens always seems to have their number. I like the Bruins to go far if they can get by Montreal. Unfortunately I think the Habs get the best of them once again. 

Canadiens in six. 



Season series: 3-1-2 San Jose. 

Why Los Angeles will win: 

What carried the Kings this season were their defense & goaltending. The Kings give up nearly 28 shots a game which is 3rd lowest in the NHL & their penalty kill was 4th in the NHL (85.5%)

When you talk about great defensive duos Drew Doughty & Jack Johnson must be mentioned in the conversation. There is no debating this. Jonathan Quick & Johnathan Bernier gives the Kings two goaltenders that are capable of winning in the playoffs.

The Kings are expected to have Justin Williams back in the lineup after missing the last month of the season with a shoulder injury. Him & Dustin Penner will be expected to provide the scoring now that Anze Kopitar is out for the season with an ankle injury. 

Why San Jose will win: 

Seven forwards on the Sharks have scored 20 plus goals this season lead by Patrick Marleau who had 37. Joe Pavelski, who would play on the top line of most NHL teams is currently the 3rd line center for the Sharks. 

The Sharks finally have a goaltender that is capable of winning a Stanley Cup. For many years Evgeni Nabokov would get outplayed by lesser goalies in the playoffs.

This year the Sharks have Antti Niemi in net who helped lead Chicago to the Stanley Cup last season. If he is good enough to do that in Chicago he should be good enough to do it in San Jose. 

Prediction: There is a lot I like about the Kings & if Kopitar was healthy I think they could win this series. However with Kopitar being hurt it will be up to the Kings defense to give them a chance to win this series.

It might be good enough to stop San Jose once but the Sharks offense is too good to be stopped over seven games. 

Sharks in 5.

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