Saturday, May 14, 2011

Conference Finals Preview

And then there were four.

The Conference Finals are set with San Jose taking on Vancouver in the West & Tampa Bay vs. Boston in the East.

San Jose & Vancouver shouldn't surprise a lot of people as they were the two best teams in the Western Conference this season. As for Tampa & Boston, you'll be hard pressed to find someone who predicted this matchup at the start of the playoffs.

But these are the four teams left standing with a chance to play for Lord Stanley's Cup. So who do I like? Let's start in the East.

Tampa Bay vs. Boston:

Both teams overcame adversity in their 1st round series. Boston lost the 1st two games against Montreal before rallying to win in seven games while Tampa trailed 3-1 against Pittsburgh before winning three straight to win the series.

The momentum for both teams continued into the next round as Boston swept Philadelphia & Tampa Bay swept Washington.

Leading the Lightning in scoring this post-season isn't Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, or Steven Stamkos. It's Sean Bergenheim with seven goals.

St. Louis & Lecavalier have done their part on offense for the Lightning. St. Louis leads the team in points with 13 (6G, 7A) while Lecavalier is 2nd with 12 (5G, 7A).

Tampa will be a little weak on defense to start the series as Pavel Kubina didn't travel with the Lightning to Boston. He is day to day with an upper body injury.

Despite the injury Tampa should be good on the blueline with Eric Brewer & Matthias Ohlund carrying the load. They will have their hands full with Boston's forwards & will have to keep them from crashing the net against Dwayne Roloson.

Speaking of Roloson he has been one of the great stories this post-season. He leads the playoffs with a save percentage of .941 & a GAA of 2.01. If it wasn't for Roloson I doubt Tampa Bay would still be playing.

His counterpart in net for Boston, Tim Thomas, has also played very well this post-season. Thomas in 2nd in the playoffs with a save percentage of .937 & a GAA of 2.03. His play in net has been nothing short of spectacular this season.

On defense the Bruins are led by team captain Zdeno Chara. Chara leads all players in plus/minus this playoffs with a plus 11 on the ice. Boston's defense has only allowed 24 goals this post-season which is tied with Tampa for the best among the four teams remaining.

The Bruins will start the series without their top scorer this post-season. Patrice Bergeron (2G, 10A) is out with a concussion. With Begeron out of the lineup Boston will need more out of their forwards.

Brad Marchand, David Krecji, & Nathan Horton each have five goals in the playoffs and all three played well against Philadelphia. They will need to carry that momentum against a Tampa team with much better goaltending.

Prediction:

Both teams have impressed me this spring. Boston was able to exercise playoff demons by beating Montreal & Philadelphia. That being said there is just something about the Bruins I just don't trust.

Claude Julien looks lost at times behind the bench in Boston while Tampa Bay coach Guy Boucher inspires a confidence in the Lightning I haven't seen since 2004.

The leaders for Tampa, St Louis & Lecavalier, have won a Stanley Cup & know what it takes to get there while the Bruins captain Chara has a history of coming up short.

I am thankful that the Bruins eliminated Philadelphia but the goodwill ends there. In the end I can't go against a team that Steve Yzerman oversees.

Tampa Bay in 6.

San Jose vs. Vancouver:

With all due respect to Tampa Bay & Boston, the matchup in the Western Conference is your Stanley Cup Final this season.

You have two very good teams facing each other that have very fragile fanbases & a history of underachieving. The good news is one of these teams will breakthrough in this series.

Both teams matchup well with each other. The Canucks up front are led by the Sedin twins & Ryan Kesler.

Daniel Sedin leads Vancouver with six goals this post-season and is 2nd on the team in points with 10. His brother Henrik has one goal & eight assists. Kesler played like a man possessed against Nashville finishing with 11 points in the series. Kesler is tied with Pavel Datsyuk as the scoring leader with 15 points.

On defense the Canucks are a deep group led by Christian Ehrhoff who has 10 points (2G, 7A) Ehrhoff along with Dan Hamhuis & Kevin Bieksla will have the task of stopping the top scorers for the Sharks.

San Jose is lead up front by the big three of Joe Thornton (2G, 9A) Dany Heatley (3G, 5A) & Patrick Marleau (3G, 3A) While those three players have not shown up every game the Sharks have not been devoid of scoring.

Ryane Clowe leads the team with 13 points (4G, 9A) While Devon Setoguchi & Logan Couture are tied for the team lead with 6 goals each.

On defense the Sharks are led by Dan Boyle (2G, 9A) who always seemed to come up big against Detroit when the Sharks needed him to. Joining him on defense is Ian White (+5), Douglas Murray, & Jason Demars. They will have the task of stopping the 1st line of the Sedin Twins & the 2nd line led by Kesler.

Both teams are strong in goal. Roberto Luongo has a GAAIIHF world championships.

Antti Niemi has a GAA of 3.01 & a save percentage of .906. He hasn't been as good as he was last season when he won the Stanley Cup but he gives the Sharks quality goaltending and he hasn't been outplayed in net in the playoffs, something that always seemed to happen when Evgeni Nabokov played for the Sharks.

Prediction:

Both teams have overcome a lot to reach this point and as much as I loved the way Vancouver played against Nashville there is something different about San Jose this year.

In years past the pressure would have gotten to the Sharks & they would have failed against Los Angeles & Detroit. Instead they were able to put away the Kings in the 1st round & hold off Detroit in the 2nd round.

The Sharks are the only team that can match Vancouver depth up front & I like their defense a little better than the Canucks. As for goaltending, Niemi has already proven he can beat Luongo in the playoffs.

Call me crazy but I like the Sharks to win this series.

San Jose in 7.

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