Friday, September 24, 2010

Southeast Division Preview

As we continue our division previews today we visit the Southeast Division. While it's not known for being a hotbed of hockey it is home to last season's President's Trophy winner the Washington Capitals. Both Carolina & Tampa Bay have won Stanley Cups since the Southeast Division was formed back in 1999. Atlanta & Florida are both looking to make it back to the playoffs and make their mark this season.

Who do I think will do well from the Southeast? Let's break it down.

 Washington Capitals
Last Season: 54-13-15  121 points. Lost in 1st Round to Montreal

New additions:

D.J. King, LW (St. Louis)
 Subtractions:

Brendan Morrison, C (Vancouver) Shaone Morrison, D (Buffalo) Eric Belanger, C (Phoenix) Joe Corvo, D (Carolina) Scott Walker, RW (Free Agent) Jose Theodore, G (Free Agent)
 Why they'll succeed:

They had the best record last season in the NHL and all their core players are returning.

You may see a lot of names on the list of subtractions but their AHL team in Hershey, Pa. went 60-17-3 en route to winning the Calder Cup last season. Look for Keith Aucoin to have a more prominent role this season.

Washington still has the most exciting player in the league in Alex Ovechkin. His 50 goals & 109 points led the team in scoring. Alex Semin & Nicklas Backstrom had 40 & 33 goals respectfully to provide scoring depth.

Mike Green is still an offensive threat on the blueline, scoring 19 goals and 76 points to lead all defensemen.

Why they'll fail:

While Washington is exciting offensively their defense has not been good enough to stop teams from scoring. Green is their best offensive defenseman but they don't have a shut down defenseman like a Pronger who can make life miserable for the other teams top scorer. Their defensemen will actually need to play defense before they can think about making a long post-season run.

Another issue is the goaltending. Theodore is gone which leaves the job to either Seymon Varlamov or Michael Neuvirth. Varlamov has replaced Theodore in net the last two post-seasons and will most likely be the starter when the season begins. Neuvirth led Hershey to the Calder Cup last season and will be ready to step in if Varlamov should struggle.Playoff team:

Definitely. You don't have this much offensive talent & miss the post-season. The only reason they lost last year to Montreal is because the Canadiens were able to take away the one thing the Capitals did best & that is score on the power play.

They didn't make a lot of roster changes this off-season which tells me they believe in the core of this team. I'm not sure how far they will go but I do know they are still the class of the Southeast.

Carolina Hurricanes:
Last Season: 35-37-10 80 points Did Not Qualify

New additions:

Joe Corvo, D (Washington) Anton Babchuk, D (KHL) Patrick O'Sullivan, F (Edmonton) Jeff Skinner (OHL)

Subtractions:

Rod Brind'Amour, C (Retired) Ray Whitney, RW (Phoenix)

Why they'll succeed:

It's Eric Staal's team now. He took over as captain last season from Rod Brind'Amour. With Rod now retired Staal has become the face of the franchise. He won a Stanley Cup before his 22nd birthday & he won a gold medal in Vancouver for Team Canada.

Staal struggled at the start of the season scoring only five goals in the 1st two months. He scored 24 goals the rest of the season, second on the team to Jussi Jokinen. I expect Staal to get off to a strong start now that he is the face of the franchise.

Cam Ward returns in net after missing most of the season due to a lacerated leg. His health is a key factor in any success the canes have.

Why they'll fail:

Whitney took his 21 goals with him to Phoenix which means someone will have to step up & fill his skates on a line with Eric Staal.

On defense they are led by Tim Gleason & Joni Pitkanen, two talented defenseman who have yet to play to the level that is expected of them. An underachieving group of defenseman is never a good thing to have

Playoff team:

There are a lot of question marks surrounding Carolina but their chances for the post-season hinge on the health of Staal & Ward. If they are healthy they are a playoff team. If not then they aren't.

One thing in Carolina's favor is the fact they play in the Southeast. While the Atlantic & Northeast teams should beat up on each other, Carolina should be able to take advantage of the Southeast and get a playoff spot this season.

Tampa Bay Lightning
Last Season: 34-36-12 80 points  Did Not Qualify

New additions:

Dan Ellis, G (Nashville) Simon Gagne, LW (Philadelphia) Pavel Kubina, D (Atlanta) Dominic Moore, C (Montreal) Steve Yzerman, GM (Detroit)

Subtractions:

Matt Walker, D (Philadelphia) Andrej Mezaros, D (Philadelphia) Antero Nittymaki, G (San Jose) Kurtis Foster, D (Edmonton) Alex Tanguay, LW (Calgary)

Why they'll succeed:

Their most important acquisition may be their GM. Yzerman comes from Detroit where all they have done is become the most successful NHL franchise of the last 20 seasons.

He won three cup as the captain of the Red Wings (1997, 1998, 2002) He won one as an executive (2008). He won a gold medal for Team Canada as a player (2002) & has their GM (2010)

He takes over a very talented roster led by Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos & Vinny Lecavalier. The addition of Gagne only makes them better up front.

Kubina returns after stops in Toronto & Atlanta. He should be a good mentor on the blueline for Victor Hedman, who is expected to be the next great defenseman in the NHLWhy they'll fail:

Their goaltending is still questionable. They haven't had a top notch goalie since Nikolai Khabibulin won the cup back in 2004.

Mike Smith is in his 4th season with the Lightning and has set to claim the job as his own. He shared last season with Nittymaki. Now that Nittymaki is in San Jose Dan Ellis comes in from Nashville to try & win the job.

Playoff team:

Two years ago I bought stock saying the Lightning were a playoff team. That's before they crashed & burned out of the gate leading to the firing of Barry Melrose after 16 games.

For the 3rd time in six years they have new ownership and unlike the previous regime they seem to be doing things right.

Tampa has way too much talent to not be a playoff team. I like what Yzerman has done so far as GM. His moves should be enough for the Lighning to return to the playoffs.

Atlanta Thrashers
Last Season: 35-34-13 83 points Did Not Qualify

New additions:

Dustin Byfuglien, RW (Chicago) Andrew Ladd, LW (Chicago) Brent Sopel, D (Chicago) Ben Eager, F (Chicago) Chris Mason, G (St. Louis) Donald Brasher, LW (NY Rangers)

Subtractions:

Maxin Afiniganov, LW (KHL) Colby Armstrong, LW (Toronto) Johan Hedberg, G (New Jersey) Pavel Kubina, D (Tampa Bay) Marty Reasoner, C (Florida)

Why they'll succeed:

After being the GM since the beginning of their existence Don Waddell stepped down as GM to make room for Rick Dudley.

Dudley, who spent time in Chciago wasted no time in taking advantage of the Blackhawks salary cap woes by acquiring Byfuglien, Ladd, Sopel & Eager.

Add those four players to a nucleus of young talent in Evander Kane, Nicolas Bergfors, & Zach Bogosian and you have an exciting young team to watch.

Why they'll fail:

They still don't have a sniper to replace Kovalchuk. True, they never won any playoff games with Kovalchuk and Atlanta did finish strong without him but a player like that is still hard to replace. I can only imagine how good this team could be if they would have signed Kovalchuk.

Mason did a decent job in St. Louis but I'm not convinced he is nothing more than a serviceable NHL goaltender.

There is talk about playing Byfuglien on the blueline this season instead of at forward. He did play defense growing up but he made his mark in front of the net. I think he is more valuable up front than in back.

Playoff team:

Not yet. This is a young exciting team but I think they are still about a year away from making it to the playoffs.

I like the moves Dudley has made and I think if either Carolina or Tampa struggles out of the gate Atlanta could sneak by and finish 2nd in the division once again.

Florida Panthers
Last Season: 32-37-13 77 points Did not Qualify

New additions:

Dennis Wideman, D (Boston) Steve Bernier, RW (Vancouver) Michael Grabner, RW (Vancouver) Marty Reasoner, C (Atlanta) Chris Higgins, C (NY Rangers) Nathan Paetsch, D (Buffalo)

Subtractions:

Nathan Horton, C (Boston) Greg Campbell, RW (Boston) Keith Ballard, D (Vancouver)

Why they'll succeed:

Like Atlanta they have a GM, (Dale Tallon) who came over from the Chicago organization. Tallon was responsible for most of the players on the Blackhawks roster that won the Stanley Cup last season. That should give the fans in South Florida some optimism.

Tomas Vokoun in net gives Florida a chance to compete every night. Quite simply he is a good goaltender on a bad team.

Why they'll fail:

They have only two players on their roster, David Booth & Radek Dvorak who have scored over 30 goals in a NHL season. Booth missed most of last season after a vicious hit by Mike Richards and Dvorak last hit the 30 goal mark 10 years ago. With the trade of Horton to Boston someone will have to pick up the scoring.

Playoff team:

Not at this time. This team is still probably a couple seasons away from returning to the playoffs. With Tallon as the GM there should be some improvement eventually but I think the deconstruction Florida's roster continues through this season before starting to build the foundation next year.

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