Monday, September 19, 2011

NORTHEAST DIVISION PREVIEW

The NHL went to a six division format in 1998. Since that time only one division failed to have a Stanley Cup winner, the Northeast Division.

That changed last season when the Boston Bruins defeated Vancouver in seven games to win their 1st Stanley Cup in 39 years. Will they be able to repeat? Or will one of the other teams in the Northeast be able to knock them off their perch? 

1. Boston Bruins 

How They Finished: 46-25-11 103 points 1st in Northeast, 3rd in East. Won Stanley Cup. 

Additions: 

Benoit Pouliot (Montreal) Joe Corvo (Carolina) 

Subtractions: 

Tomas Kaberle (Carolina) Michael Ryder (Dallas) Mark Recchi (Retired) 

Why They'll Succeed: 

The core of players that won the Stanley Cup last summer returns this season.

Milan Lucic (30G, 32A) David Krecji (13G, 49A) Patrice Bergeron ( 22G, 35A) & Nathan Horton (26G, 27A) were the top four scorers for Boston last season and all are back with the team.

Zdeno Chara remains an intimidating presence on the blueline and Tim Thomas showed everyone last year why his name should be named among the top goaltenders finishing 35-11-7 with a GAA of 2.00 and a save percentage of .938. 

Why They'll Fail: 

Last year the Bruins won the Stanley Cup even though their power play was anemic throughout the entire Stanley Cup playoffs. I don't expect it to be a problem but it is something that bears worth watching.

A bigger concern is a couple of key players dealing with concussions, Nathan Horton & Marc Savard.

Horton suffered a concussion in Game 3 when he was leveled in the offensive zone by Aaron Rome. Horton ended up missing the rest of the finals. He should be OK for the start of the season but with a  concussion you never know.

The same can't be said for Savard. He suffered a Grade 2 concussion back in March of 2010 and has been battling the effects of that since then. He has played since that injury but for his health has been shut down for the upcoming season. 

Prediction: 

The Bruins overcame a lot in the last couple years before winning the Stanley Cup. They have the talent to do it again but it's going to be hard for them to repeat with everyone gunning for them. They should however be good enough to win the division once again.


2. Buffalo Sabres 

How They Finished: 43-29-10 96 points. 3rd in Northeast, 7th in East. Lost in 1st Round to Philadelphia. 

Additions: 

Ales Kotalik (Calgary) Robyn Regehr (Calgary) Christian Ehrhoff (Vancouver) Ville Leino (Philadelphia) 

Subtractions: 

Tim Connolly (Toronto) Chris Butler (Calgary) Mark Mancari (Vancouver) Rob Niedermayer (Switzerland) Patrick Lalime (Retired) 

Why They'll Succeed: 

They have a new owner that's committed to winning.

The Sabres got off to a horrible start last season and looked like they were going to miss the playoffs. Then on February 11th Terry Pegula purchased the team and overnight it was a different culture.

Pegula reaffirmed that commitment by signing Ville Leino this off-season to a 6 year contract worth 27 million. Whether he can live up to that contract over 82 games remains to be seen but after watching him in the playoffs that last two seasons (10G, 16A) I understand why Buffalo made that commitment.

Leino will join forwards Thomas Vanek (32G, 41A) Brad Boyes (17G, 38A) Drew Stafford (31G, 21A) & Jason Pominville (22G, 30A) all of whom reached the 50 point plateau last season. Also returning for the Sabres is Derek Roy who missed the 2nd half of the season with a knee injury. When healthy Roy is a 60 point player.

On defense the Sabres are led by Tyler Myers who regressed a little from his Calder winning performance in 2010 finishing with 10 goals, 27 assists and a rating of 0 in plus/minus.

Myers is joined on defense this year by Christian Ehrhoff & Robyn Regehr. Ehrhoff reached the 50 point plateau (14G, 36A) for the 1st time last season and gives the Sabres another puck moving defenseman that can score from the blueline. Regehr is a rugged defenseman that will add some snarl to the blueline for Buffalo.

In goal once again is Ryan Miller who has been good every season since joining the Sabres in 2006. Last season Miller was 34-22-8 with a GAA of 2.59 and a save percentage of .916.

Why They'll Fail: 

There is a lot of expectations on the Sabres this season. It's one thing to pour a lot of money into a roster. It's another to produce at a high level to match those expectations.


Last season when the Sabres got off to a slow start rumors were swirling that head coach Lindy Ruff & GM Darcy Regier's jobs might be in jeopardy. The talent is there on the roster where that shouldn't happen again but if it does there is no guarantee that Pegula will be patient with both of them. 

Prediction: 

I really like the additions Buffalo has made and I like the makeup of these players. They may not be the most talented team in the NHL but they are going to be very difficult to play against. I think they finish 2nd in the division but it wouldn't surprise me if they win the Northeast. 


3. Montreal Canadiens 

How They Finished: 44-30-8  96 points. 2nd in Northeast, 6th in East. Lost in 1st round to Boston.

Additions: 

Erik Cole (Carolina) Peter Budaj (Colorado) Nathan Lawson (Montreal) Brian Willsie (Washington) Jeff Woywitka (Dallas) 

Subtractions: 

Jeff Halpern (Washington) Roman Hamrlik (Washington) Benoit Pouliot (Boston) Alex Auld (Ottawa) Alexandre Picard (Pittsburgh) Tom Pyatt (Tampa Bay) Brent Sopel (KHL) James Wisniewski (Columbus) Mathieu Carle (Anaheim) 

Why They'll Succeed: 

The young core of core of players in Montreal are starting to mature.

Carey Price, who has been criticized by many in his career, had his best pro season last year finishing 38-28-6 with a GAA of 2.35 & a save percentage of .923, all career bests.

On the blueline, P.K. Subban is starting to come into his own. He finished last year with 38 points (14G, 24A) with nine of those goals coming on the Power Play. I watched him last year score a hat trick against Minnesota and walked out of the arena thinking it was one of the best individual performances I've seen.

Up front, Erik Cole comes from Carolina to add some grit & put a body in front of the net. He joins a group of forwards led by Tomas Plekanec (22G, 35A) who was Montreal's leading scorer last year and Brian Gionta who led Montreal in goals with 29.

Why They'll Fail: 

After Subban the Canadiens are thin on the blueline.

Wisniewski and Hamrlik have left the team, leaving Jaroslav Spacek (1G, 15A) as their 2nd leading scorer on defense. Andrei Markov returns after only playing in seven games last year due to a knee injury. If he can stay healthy his presence should increase the scoring on defense.

Up front one problem for Montreal has been scoring goals in front of the net. The addition of Cole up front will help but the Canadiens still don't have a lot of size. They will need Gionta, Mike Cammalleri, Andrei Kostitsyn & Plekanec to find the back of the net & get the puck through traffic. 

Prediction: 

Montreal won the 1st two games against Boston last season were an overtime goal away from eliminating the Bruins. The question for me is whether Price & Subban can pick up where they left off.

For me the Canadiens are a bubble team when it comes to the playoffs and right now I think they are in as the 8th seed. 


4. Toronto Maple Leafs 

How They Finished: 37-34-11 85 points 4th in Northeast, 10th in East. Missed playoffs. 

Additions: 

John Michael Liles (Colorado)  Matthew Lombardi (Nashville) Cody Franson (Nashville) Tim Connolly (Buffalo) 

Subtractions: 

Brett Lebda (Nashville) Jean-Sebastian Giguere (Colorado) Tim Brent (Carolina) Fredrik Sjostrom (Swedish Elite League) 

Why They'll Succeed: 

They finished strong last year going 10-7-2 and just missing the playoffs. One of the reasons was the emergence of James Reimer in goal. Reimer played in 27 games last season going 20-10-5 with a  GAA of 2.60 & a save percentage of .921. His play gave Toronto enough confidence they let J.S. Giguere leave as a free agent.

It helps when you have a good group of defenseman playing in front of a young goalie. The Maple Leafs have that led by Dion Phaneuf, Luke Schenn & Mike Komisarek. The addition of John-Michael Liles gives them a rotation four deep that can match up with the top two scoring lines of any team in the NHL. 

Why They'll Fail: 

This is still a one line team when it comes to scoring.

Phil Kessel was their leading scorer with 64 points (32G, 32A) and Clarke MacArthur had a career year with 21 goals and 41 assists. Whether he can do it again remains to be seen.

To help with the scoring the Leafs acquired Matthew Lombardi from Nashville and Tim Connolly from Buffalo.

Lombardi played in only two games last year due to a concussion. This coming after a career year with Phoenix in 2010. (19G, 34A)

Connolly (13G, 29A) has also battled concussion issues in the past. If both players can stay healthy it gives the Leafs the depth at forward they have lacked the last few seasons. 

Prediction: 

Ron Wilson's job is on the line this season. Toronto is one of two teams (Florida) that haven't made the playoffs since the lockout. If they can pick up where they left off last season with Connolly & Lombardi staying healthy the Leafs should contend for that final playoff spot.

But I have to see it happen before I can buy in. Right now I have them missing the playoffs for the 7th year in a row. 


5. Ottawa Senators 

How They Finished: 32-40-10  74 points  5th in Northeast, 13th in East. Missed playoffs. 

Additions: 

Nikita Filatov (Columbus) Alex Auld (Montreal) Zenon Konopka (NY Islanders) Mike McKenna (New Jersey) 

Subtractions: 

Ryan Shannon (Tampa Bay) Curtis McIlheney (Phoenix) 

Why They'll Succeed: 

They have a new coach in Paul MacLean who comes over from Detroit. I'm sure MacLean will implement some of the things that were done in Detroit with the Senators. If you are going to copy any team in the NHL the Red Wings are a good team to model.

Daniel Alfredsson (14G, 17A) & Jason Spezza (21G, 36A) are back & healthy with Sergei Gonchar (7G, 20A) and Erik Karlsson (13G, 32A) on the blueline giving the Senators a puck moving presence. 

Why They'll Fail: 

They didn't do much to improve a team that was 13th in the East last year. There isn't a lot of depth on the scoring lines. Filatov and Milan Michalek have talent but neither one has played to his full potential. The Senators are hoping one of those two can fill out the other spot on the top line with Heatley & Spezza.

Craig Anderson will take his place in what has seemed to be a revolving door in goal in Ottawa. Anderson was 24-20-4 in 49 games with Colorado & Ottawa with a GAA of 2.83 and a save percentage of .913. My guess is he is holding the spot until a better option shows up. 

Prediction: 

Going into last season I wondered if Ottawa's playoff appearance in 2010 was an aberration. It was.

The Senators are rebuilding and a lot of the young talent are going to get a chance to show they belong in the NHL. There are going to be growing pains this season with the Senators finishing last in the Northeast and near the bottom in the Eastern Conference

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