Friday, September 30, 2011

NORTHWEST DIVISION PREVIEW

When breaking down each division in the NHL, by default one has to be the worst. That honor once again falls to the Northwest Division which saw the Vancouver Canucks reach the Stanley Cup Finals while the other four teams missed the playoffs. 

Will that happen again this season or can one of the other teams close the gap in the division? 

1. Vancouver Canucks 

How They Finished: 54-19-9 117 points  1st in Northwest, 1st in Western Conference. Lost in Stanley Cup Finals. 

Additions: 

Mike Duco (Florida) Byron Bitz (Florida) Alexander Sulzer (Florida) Andrew Ebbett (Phoenix) Marco Sturm (Washington) Mark Mancari (Buffalo) 

Subtractions: 

Christian Ehrhoff (Buffalo) Jeff Tambellini (Switzerland) Tanner Glass (Winnipeg) Raffi Torres (Phoenix) Rick Rypien (Deceased) 

Why They'll Succeed: 

They were the best team in the NHL last year and most of the key players are still with the Canucks.

Daniel Sedin was the leading score in the NHL with 104 points last year (41G, 63A) while brother Henrik finished 2nd on the team with 94 points (19G, 75A). Ryan Kesler also had a career year scoring 41 goals and was a finalist for the Selke Award.

The Canucks have one of the deepest teams in the NHL at every position. Injuries slowed them down in the playoffs but when healthy this may be the most talented team in the NHL.

Even with defenseman Christian Ehrhoff leaving for Buffalo the defense of the Canucks is still deep. Alex Edler, Dan Hamhuis, Kevin Bieskla, and Sami Salo all return with Keith Ballard, Aaron Rome, Ryan Parent, Andrew Alberts & Alexander Sulzer fighting for those final two spots on defense. 

Why They'll Fail: 

We aren't sure what to expect from Roberto Luongo in goal.

Last year Luongo was 38-15-7 with a GAA of 2.11, a save percentage of .928 and was a finalist for the Vezina Trophy.

For as great of a season Luongo had, he did have his struggles in the playoffs. He was benched in Game 6 against Chicago after losing games 4 & 5. In the Stanley Cup Finals he was brilliant in Vancouver but struggled in Boston being replaced twice by Cory Schneider.

I'm interested to seeing how Luongo responds after coming so close to winning last year. He has the talent but does he have the mentality? Lucky for the Canucks they have a capable backup in Schneider they can turn to if needed. 

Prediction: 

Vancouver is still a great hockey club and coming close last year should only make them hungrier. They are by far the best team in the Northwest and should win the division easily. 

2. Minnesota Wild 

How They Finished: 39-35-8 86 points 3rd in Northwest, 12th in West. Missed Playoffs. 

Additions: 

Devon Setoguchi (San Jose) Dany Heatley (San Jose) Darroll Powe (Philadelphia) Jeff Taffe (Chicago) Mike Lundin (Tampa Bay) 

Subtractions: 

Brent Burns (San Jose) Martin Havlat (San Jose) James Sheppard (San Jose) Jose Theodore (Florida) Andrew Brunette (Chicago) Chuck Kobasew (Colorado) Cam Barker (Edmonton) Antti Miettinen (KHL) John Madden (Free Agent) 

Why They'll Succeed: 

They actually have a pair of wings to go with Mikko Koivu. Last year Koivu was paired on the top line with Brunette & Miettinen. This year he will have Setoguchi & Heatley playing with him a significant upgrade.

The additions of Setoguchi & Heatley will give the Wild a better balance of forwards up front. 3rd line players can now be 3rd line players instead of trying to fill spots on the 1st & 2nd lines.

The Wild also bring in a new coach in Mike Yeo who replaces Todd Richards. Yeo led the Wild's AHL affiliate Houston to the Calder Cup finals last year. He should bring an edge & a level of intensity to a Wild team that seem to be lacking passion at times last season. 

Why They'll Fail: 

To get Setoguchi the Wild had to trade their only all-star, Brent Burns.

It was the right move for the Wild, Burns was going into the final year of his contract with no guarantee he was going to re-sign. Minnesota had a lot of depth on defense but not a lot at forward which is why I believe this was a good trade.

That being said the depth on defense will be tested. Marek Zidlicky, Nick Schultz, Clayton Stoner & Greg Zanon all return as regulars with Jared Spurgeon, Marco Scandella, Justin Falk, Drew Bagnall & Mike Lundin competing for the final couple spots on defense.

Minnesota may score a lot of goals but they also may give up a lot of scoring chances. That's where Nicklas Backstrom comes in. Backstrom was 22-23-5 last year with a GAA of 2.66 and a save percentage of .916. With a defense that's in transition playing in front of him Backstrom will have to play better. 

Prediction: 

A lot of people are predicting the Wild to struggle again this season. Truthfully I think they are a lot better than people give them credit for. They were in the playoff picture until the middle of March last year.

While I don't know if they are better overall I know they are better in the areas they needed to improve and they play in the right division for them. If they can hang around until April the final playoff spot in the West isn't out of the question. 

3. Calgary Flames 

How They Finished: 41-29-12  94 points  2nd in Northwest, 9th in West. Missed playoffs. 

Additions: 

Chris Butler (Buffalo) Jordan Henry (Florida) Pierre-Luc Leblond-Letourneau (New Jersey) Lee Stempniak (Phoenix) Clay Wilson (Florida) Scott Hannan (Washington) 

Subtractions: 

Ales Kotalik (Buffalo) Robyn Regehr (Buffalo) Daymond Langkow (Phoenix) Adam Pardy (Dallas) Fredrik Modin (Retired) Steve Staios (Free Agent) 

Why They Succeed: 

There is a sense of urgency in Calgary. The Flames have missed the playoffs the last two seasons and the core of this team is getting older. In any other division I think the Flames would struggle to be a playoff team but in the Northwest they have a chance.

Jarome Iginla led the Flames in scoring with 86 points (43G, 43A) To put in perspective how impressive Iginla was for Calgary last year only three other Flames reached the 20 goal mark, Rene Bourque (27), Curtis Glencross (24), and Alex Tanguay (22).

The Flames also still have one of the premier goaltenders in the NHL in Miikka Kiprusoff. Kiprusoff was 37-24-6 with a GAA of 2.63 and a save percentage of .906. As long as Kiprusoff is in net the Flames will have a chance to compete. 

Why They'll Fail: 

The Flames convinced Robyn Regehr to waive his no trade clause so they could send him & Ales Kotalik to Buffalo for Chris Butler. As I write this I have no idea how this deal makes Calgary better. I do like the Flames addition of Scott Hannan and I expect him to fill Regehr's role on the blueline.

The other thing I don't like about Calgary is Olli Jokinen on their roster. I know he is a personal whipping boy among hockey writers but the fact remains, No team has ever started a season with Olli Jokinen on the roster and made the playoffs. I don't see any reason why that will change this year. 

Prediction: 

Hate to break it to you Flames fans but your window has closed. One thing you do have going for you is Jay Feaster as GM. He'll do a good job helping the Flames become competitive once again but it won't be this season as Calgary misses the playoffs for the 3rd year in a row. 

4. Colorado Avalanche 

How They Finished: 30-44-8  68 points 4th in Northwest, 14th in Western Conference. Missed Playoffs. 

Additions: 

Seymon Varlamov (Washington) Jan Hedja (Columbus) Jean-Sebastian Giguere (Toronto) Chuck Kobasew (Minnesota) Patrick Rissmiller (Florida) Shane O'Brien (Nashville) 

Subtractions: 

John Michael Liles (Toronto) Peter Budaj (Montreal) Tomas Fleischmann (Florida) Brian Elliott (St. Louis) Philippe Dupuis (Toronto) Adam Foote (Retired) 

Why They'll Succeed: 

Seymon Varlamov and J.S. Giguere were brought in to replace Brian Elliott and Peter Budaj in goal and that move alone should make Colorado better.

Varlamov had been the starting goalie in Washington but failed to ever claim the job as his own. With Varlamov it always seem like he was the better option by default. He'll have less pressure in Colorado to perform than in Washington.

On defense Colorado made a bold trade last year acquiring Erik Johnson from St. Louis last year in exchange for Chris Stewart. So far it looks like the Blues have gotten the better end of the deal but starting a full season in Colorado Johnson should be a lot better this season. 

Why They'll Fail: 

The Avalanche are a young hockey club.

Matt Duchene was their leading scorer with 67 points (27G, 40A) with Paul Statsny finishing 2nd on the team with 57 points (22G, 35A). These are two of the young players the Avalanche are building around.

However it is going to take more than these two for the Avalanche to compete and Colorado just doesn't have those players on their roster. 

While the additions of Varmalov & Giguere make Colorado better in goal the Avalanche gave up a league high 287 goals. That number should go down this season but not enough to make a difference. 

Prediction: 

Looking at Colorado's roster most of the players are scheduled to be restricted or unrestricted free agents at the end of the season. It looks like their playoff appearance two years ago was an aberration with the rebuilding continuing this season. At least they won't finish last. 

5. Edmonton Oilers 

How They Finished: 25-45-12  62 points. 5th in Northwest, 15th in West. Missed Playoffs. 

Additions: 

Ryan Smyth (Edmonton) Andy Sutton (Anaheim) Ben Eager (San Jose) Eric Belanger (Phoenix) Cam Barker (Minnesota) Darcy Hordichuk (Florida) 

Subtractions: 

Colin Fraser (Los Angeles) Kurtis Foster (Anaheim) Andrew Cogliano (Anaheim) Jim Vandermeer (San Jose) Sheldon Souray (Dallas) Alex Giroux (Columbus) Zach Stortini (Nashville) J.F. Jacques (Anaheim) Jeff Deslauries (Anaheim) 

Why They'll Succeed: 

The young talent on this team has another year under it's belt. Yes they are still a ways away from competing for a playoff spot but the core of players is shaping up nicely.

Adding Ryan Nugent-Hopkins with the likes of Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, Magnus Paajarvi, & Sam Gagner gives the Oilers two solid lines that will develop in due time.

Another reason for Oiler fans to smile is Ryan Smyth is coming home. Traded away at the deadline in 2007 the Oilers have struggled since he left. While Smyth isn't the same player he was five years ago the fact he wanted to play in Edmonton should make Oiler fans happy. 

Why They'll Fail: 

The Oilers may look good at forward but they still need to upgrade in defense and goal. 

Nikolai Khabibulin is looking to bounce back from a rough season that saw him deal with injuries and off-ice issues. At 38 his best days are behind him. The best the Oilers can hope for is that his play keeps them in games giving them a chance to win.

On defense the Oilers gave up 260 which was the 3rd worst in the NHL. The additions of Cam Barker & Andy Sutton on defense is not going to solve that problem. 

Prediction: 

The return of Ryan Smyth will provide a ray of sunshine on what looks to be another down year in Edmonton. The Oilers hope his leadership will rub off on the young kids moving forward.

While the Oilers look pretty good up front there is still a lot of work to do on the back end. They won't make the playoffs this year but if things break right they might not be the worst team in the league. Things can only get better in Edmonton.

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