2nd Round Predictions

The opening round of the Stanley Cup playoffs are done and what an first round it was.

We saw sixteen games go into overtime, including two game sevens.

We saw the President's Trophy winner, Vancouver Canucks fall in five games to a Los Angeles Kings team that has great goaltending and know looks like they can put the puck in the net.

We saw the defending Stanley Cup Champion Boston Bruins eliminated in game seven on their home ice by a Washington Capitals team that suddenly looks like it knows how to play defense.

We saw Philadelphia and Pittsburgh nearly kill each other on the ice before the Flyers advanced in six games.

We saw Western Conference powers the Detroit Red Wings and San Jose Sharks put away in five games with very little resistance by the Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues respectively.

We saw the Phoenix Coyotes eliminate the Chicago Blackhawks in six games and win their first playoff series since 1987 when they were the Winnipeg Jets.

We saw the New York Rangers survive a scare from the Ottawa Senators to win their series in seven games and advance to the second round for the first time since 2008.

And we saw New Jersey and Florida battle to double overtime in game seven before Adam Henrique won it for the Devils.

Looking back at my predictions I went 3-5 in the 1st round. Not great but if you have followed the playoffs from year to year you know the opening round is a crapshoot where crazy things can happen and usually do.

I'll have my eulogies for Boston, Ottawa, and Florida later this weekend but with the second round beginning this evening I wanted to make my predictions starting with the series taking place tonight in the desert. 

4. Nashville Predators vs. 3. Phoenix Coyotes 

How They Got Here: 

Nashville defeated Detroit in five games, Phoenix defeated Chicago in six games. 

Why Nashville will win: 

They have a Vezina candidate in goal in Pekka Rinne and a Norris candidate on the blueline in Shea Weber.

Rinne was solid against Detroit only giving up nine goals while facing 160 shots. His GAA is 1.81 and his save percentage is .944 which is 4th amongst active goaltenders in the playoffs.

While Weber is known more from ramming Henrik Zetterberg's head against the glass he does have two goals in the post-season and is a +2 on the ice.

As a team Nashville is a +6 on the ice, best of anyone in the playoffs. The nine goals the Predators have given up are second best in the post-season. Only St. Louis and Los Angeles have given up fewer. 

Why Phoenix will win: 

They have a good goaltender of their own in Mike Smith.

Smith gave up twelve goals while facing 241 shots in six games against Chicago. His GAA is the same as Rinne (1.81) and his save percentage is .950 which is better than Rinne.

Another thing that favors Phoenix is their penalty kill. The Coyotes only gave up one power play goal against Chicago. Because of that their penalty kill ranks first among playoff teams at 94.7 percent.

Their power play isn't bad either, scoring four time sin nineteen opportunities. That ranks them 3rd among active playoff teams at 21 percent. 

Prediction: 

I had my doubts about Smith going into the series against Chicago but he was the difference allowing the Coyotes to advance to the second round for the first time in 25 years.

However three of those wins came in overtime where just about anything can happen. I saw Rinne and the Predators make Detroit look like a team that was making their first playoff appearance in 21 years not a team that had made the post-season 21 years in a  row.

Both teams shut down Detroit and Chicago who were tied for 6th in goals for this season with 248. The difference here is Nashville can also score having finished seventh in goals for with 237.

This will be a good series between two well coached teams but in the end I think the Predators are a deeper and more talented team and will make their first appearance in the Western Conference Finals. 

Predators in 5. 

8. Los Angeles Kings vs. 2. St. Louis Blues

How They Got Here: 

Los Angeles defeated Vancouver in five games, St. Louis defeated San Jose in five games. 

Why Los Angeles will win: 

You can start in net with Vezina trophy candidate Jonathan Quick.

Quick came into the playoffs with the best GAA in the NHL (1.95) and a save percentage of .929. In the playoffs Quick's save percentage is .953, best of any active goaltender and his GAA is 1.59.

Simply put without Quick in net the Kings are probably done in five games instead of winning their series in five against Vancouver.

And while Los Angeles came into the post-season with the fewest goals scored amongst playoff team that stat is a little misleading.

Sixteen of those games came without Jeff Carter who the Kings acquired from Columbus. While Carter hasn't scored yet in the playoffs he does have two assists. I expect carter to find the back of the net in this series.

Another forward to keep an eye on is Kings captain Dustin Brown. Other than Quick he was the best player in the series scoring four goals and assisting on another. He'll have to continue to play that way against a stingy St. Louis Blues team.

One more thing to keep an eye on is Los Angeles's penalty kill. The Kings gave up three power play goals on 21 shots against Vancouver and scored two short-handed goals. If they can do that against the Blues they have a great chance to win this series. 

Why St. Louis will win: 

While they don't have a Vezina candidate in net the Blues do have two good goaltenders of their own.

Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott shared the job in net all year for St. Louis. Between the two of them the Blues goals against on the season was 1.89 which was the best in the NHL.

Elliott has seen most of the work in net since replacing Halak after he was injured in game two against San Jose. While in net Elliott has a GAA of 1.37, best of any goalie remaining in the playoffs and a save percentage of .949.

Up front St. Louis has a deep group of forwards led by Andy McDonald who has 8 points (4G, 4A) in the playoffs. With McDonald playing well I expect the production of David Perron (1G, 2A) and David Backes (1G, 0A) to improve this round.

And you can't talk about the Blues without mentioning the play of their blueline.

Both Alex Pietrangelo and Carlo Colaiacovo are +3 in the playoffs while Kris Russell is +2. Their two best defenseman, Kevin Shattenkirk (-1) and Barrett Jackman (-2) may be on the negative side of the plus/minus ratings but I expect that to change in the series. 

Prediction: 

If you like goaltending this is the series for you.

I picked against the Blues last round mainly because I wasn't convinced they were as good as they were in the regular season. After watching them through five games against San Jose I'm still not convinced they are that good.

St. Louis beat a Sharks team that they matched up well against. They'll have a much tougher time against a Kings team that has great goaltending and plays good defense.

Plus I think the Kings forwards are a lot better than what their stats indicate. This just feels like the type of series where Mike Richards makes his presence felt and frustrates the Blues forwards.

I like what Los Angeles did against Vancouver. I think they can do the same thing against St. Louis. 

Kings in seven. 

7. Washington Capitals vs. 1. New York Rangers:

How They Got Here: 

Washington defeated Boston in seven games, New York defeated Ottawa in seven games. 

Why Washington will win: 

Because for once it's not all about Alex Ovechkin.

Not to rip on Ovechkin as he is the leading scorer for the Capitals in the playoffs (2G, 3A) but the engine that makes this Washington team go is goaltender Braden Holtby.

The 22 year old rookie was spectacular against Boston giving up only 15 goals in the series. His GAA is 2.00 and his save percentage is .940. His play in net reminds me of Felix Potvin when he played for Toronto in 1993.

Holtby has a calming presence in net and doesn't seemed to get rattled. If you can handle the Bruins for seven games there isn't much that is going to phase you.

Another reason to like Washington is they actually play defense.

For many years the Capitals would try to just outscore you. Now they are getting in the way of the shooter and are blocking shots on net. Their penalty kill is 91.3 percent, second best in the playoffs. 

Why New York will win: 

You can start in net with their Vezina candidate Henrik Lundqvist.

In the playoff Lundqvist has a GAA of 1.70 and a save percentage of .945. Most importantly like Holtby he provides a calming presence in net for the Rangers.

New York has only allowed 13 goals in the playoffs, best of any team in the Eastern Conference. While a lot of that is because of Lundqvist his defense in front of him deserves just as much credit.

During the season the Rangers gave up 187 goals. Only St. Louis and Los Angeles gave up fewer goals. A lot of that was due to the tandem of Ryan McDonogh (+25) and Michael Del Zotto (+20). I expect both players to be better in this series.

Up front Brad Richards and Ryan Callahan have provided their leadership on the ice by being the best forwards for New York. Richards leads all scorers with five points (2G, 3A) while Callahan is second with four points (2G, 2A)

Derek Stepan and Marian Gaborik have also done well at forward for the Rangers. Stepan has one goal and three assist while Gaborik has a goal and two assists. 

Prediction: 

The last two times these teams have met in the playoffs Washington went on to win the series. In 2009 it took seven games while in 2011 it took five games.

While these teams are different this season compared to previous years there is one thing constant. The Capitals know how to beat Henrik Lundqvist.

I've thought all year the Rangers were one wing short of being a legit Stanley Cup contender. Their forwards will have to be at their best to beat Holtby.

Meanwhile on the other end I know the Capitals forwards can beat Lundqvist. If Washington can defeat the defending Stanley Cup champions then they have a good chance to knock out the number one seed in the East. 

Capitals in six. 

6. New Jersey Devils vs. 5. Philadelphia Flyers

How They Got There: 

New Jersey defeated Florida in seven games, Philadelphia defeated Pittsburgh in six games. 

Why New Jersey will win: 

They have the best goaltender of our generation in net.

Martin Brodeur may not be the same goaltender he was twelve years ago but he is in the playoffs for the 16th time in his NHL career. There isn't much that is going to phase him.

His goals against is 2.06 and his save percentage is .922 after giving up 14 goals in the series against Florida. The fact that he won back to back overtime games tells me he still has enough for one more run.

Another thing people don't realize about the Devils is they can actually score goals. In the playoffs New Jersey has scored 18 goals. Only Philadelphia (30) and Pittsburgh (26) have scored more goals.

Leading the way in scoring for the Devils is Travis Zajac. Zajac missed 67 games during the regular season but has come back strong in the playoffs scoring three goals and assisting on three others.

Zajac didn't play in any of the games this year against Philadelphia. His presence in the lineup make the Devils a stronger team up front. 

Why Philadelphia will win: 

Have you seen their special teams?

Against Pittsburgh the Flyers were 12 for 23 with the man advantage. That's means their power play was functioning at 52.2 percent. That's unheard of in the playoffs.

While their penalty kill did give up nine goals, Philadelphia was able to score three short-handed goals, best out of any team in the playoffs.

And when you talk about the Flyers you have to mention Claude Giroux.

Giroux leads all scorers with 14 points (6G, 8A) in the playoffs. He is a +6 on the ice and his first shift on Sunday against Sidney Crosby tells you all you need to know about Giroux as a player. 

Giroux's play right now reminds me of Mike Richards in 2010 and Eric Lindros in 1997 when they willed the Flyers to the Stanley Cup Finals. 

Prediction: 

If you watched how the Flyers had their way with Pittsburgh you would think they are a lock to play in the Eastern Conference Finals.

So why do I like New Jersey in this series? Personal bias aside there are two reasons.

1. Philly's goaltending.

For as bad as Marc Andre Fleury was against the Flyers, Ilya Bryzgalov wasn't much better. He fell behind early in games one and two against Pittsburgh and looked shaky in game three before being pulled in game four after giving up five goals.

In all fairness Bryzgalov did play well in games five and six as the Flyers went on to win the series. The problem is Bryzgalov has been streaky for most of the season.

I realize that Martin Brodeur may be 40 years old but I don't expect him to be as bad as Fleury was against Philadelphia.

2. Lou Lamariello.

At the trade deadline the Devils GM had to make a decision, trade Zach Parise and get something in return for next season or keep Parise and try to make a run at the Stanley Cup.

One thing you need to understand about Lamariello, no GM has a better pulse of what his team is capable of.

The fact that he decided to keep Parise tells me he thinks the Devils can make a cup run.

There is a saying among Devils fans, In Lou We Trust. For this series I trust as well.

Devils in six.