Eastern Conference:
1. New York Rangers (51-24-7 109 points) vs. 8. Ottawa Senators (41-31-10 92 points)
Why New York will win:
It starts with the man in net.
Henrik Lundqvist had a career high this season in wins, (39) GAA (1.97) and save percentage (.929)
His play this season has made him the favorite to win the Vezina award for top goaltender. Whenever you have a Vezina candidate on your team you have a chance to go far in the playoffs.
Just as important is the blueline for the Rangers. As a team they gave up 187 goals, the fewest of any team in the Eastern Conference.
The only regular defenseman that finished in the minus category of plus/minus is Marc Staal who was a -7 in the 46 games he played this season. I've watched Marc Staal play and trust me, he's better than his plus/minus rating indicates.
It's going to be very hard to beat the Rangers if you can't score on them.
Why Ottawa will win:
The Senators had success against New York this season winning three out of the four matchups including a shutout back on January 12th. Granted the playoffs are a different season but for a young team Ottawa can use that as a confidence builder.
The Senators can also score goals. Ottawa finished the season with 249 goals which was tied for 4th overall in the NHL. They'll need to continue to score if they are to beat Lundqvist.
Prediction:
It's been a nice season for the Senators as they surprised a lot of people by finishing 2nd in the Northeast Division and clinching the final playoff spot in the East but I think the Rangers are a well coached team and are too tough defensively to lose this series.
Rangers in 5.
2. Boston Bruins (49-29-4 102 points) vs. 7. Washington Capitals (42-32-8 92)
Why Boston will win:
The defending Stanley Cup Champions return to the playoffs with practically the same roster they had last season.
The only two players missing from last year's team that had an impact were Mark Recchi and Michael Ryder.
Brian Rolston has seemed to settle into that veteran role that Recchi had last year in his return to Boston. In 21 games Rolston has 15 points (3G, 12A) and is a +7. With the New York Islanders he had 9 points (4G, 5A) in 49 games and was a -12 on the ice.
More importantly the Bruins are one of the most balanced teams in the NHL on both ends of the ice. They were 2nd in the NHL in goals for with 269 and 5th in goals allowed with 202. Their goal differential of +67 is the best in the NHL.
Why Washington will win:
There is no pressure on the Capitals this postseason.
Think about it. For the last four years Washington has been one of the favorites to come out of the East only to stumble before the Conference Finals.
The Capitals are 2-4 in their last six playoffs series since returning to the post-season in 2008 and each time they had home ice in the series.
This year they get to travel to Boston where they face the defending Stanley Cup Champions and nobody is giving them a chance to pull off the upset.
If I'm a Capitals fan the thought of having Zdeno Chara shadow Alexander Ovechkin each shift does not make me feel good about my teams chances however if there is one thing I have learned by watching the playoffs in previous years is that if something quirky does happen in the 1st round it usually is in the 2-7 matchup.
Prediction:
There isn't a lot that has gone right for Washington this season. Boston has had it's share of adversity too but unlike the Capitals they have been able to play their way out of it.
Washington has the talent to make this series go longer than it should but I think Boston wins the series in the end.
Bruins in 6.
3. Florida Panthers (38-26-18 94 points) vs. 6. New Jersey Devils (48-28-6 102 points)
Why Florida will win:
Because they are in the postseason.
When I look at this Panthers roster I'm not that impressed. Their 38 wins is the fewest of any division winner since 2003 when Tampa Bay won the Southeast Division with 36 wins.
The fact that Florida won the Southeast speaks more of the underachievement of the Washington Capitals and the struggles of the Tampa Bay Lightning than the success of the Panthers.
18 of Florida points this season came after regulation with 11 of those being a loss in the shootout. That's one thing the Panthers won't have to worry about here.
But Florida is in the playoffs. There are 14 other NHL teams that would love to trade places with the Panthers and they have home ice in the 1st round. Every little bit helps.
Why New Jersey will win:
The Devils got a nice break here.
By finishing 6th in the East they get a Florida team that scored 203 goals this season. Only Los Angeles scored fewer goals of all the playoff teams. That's a lot better than finishing 5th and drawing Philadelphia or Pittsburgh in the 1st round.
And New Jersey still has Martin Brodeur in net. Granted Brodeur at 39 isn't the same as he was when he was 32 but he is still a pretty good goaltender. A low scoring team like the Panthers is the perfect opponent for Brodeur in the 1st round.
Plus the Devils had the best penalty kill in the NHL this season (89.6%) They have never been an easy team to score against and the Panthers don't have a lot of offensive fire power.
Offensively this season New Jersey finished with 228 goals, 9th best among all the playoff teams. This is a series where 2-3 goals might be enough to win the game.
Prediction:
The last time Florida made the playoffs was back in 2000. They were swept by the Devils in four straight games as New Jersey went on to win the Stanley Cup.
I'm not saying history is going to repeat itself in regards to the Devils winning the cup but I think history does repeat itself as New Jersey gets out of the 1st round for the first time since 2006.
Devils in 4.
4. Pittsburgh Penguins (51-25-6 108 points) vs. Philadelphia Flyers (47-26-9 103 points)
Why Pittsburgh will win:
As I wrote when I ranked the 16 playoff teams, the Penguins have the most quality depth of any team in the post-season. They were the highest scoring team in the NHL finishing with 282 goals.
Plus right now Evgeni Malkin might be the best player on the planet. Malkin finished with the league lead in points with 109. He was 2nd in goals with 50 and 3rd in assist with 59.
With numbers like that you figure Philadelphia top defensive pairing will get the majority of the on ice shifts against Malkin's line.
That leaves Sidney Crosby's line to match-up against the Flyers 2nd defensive pairing and Jordan Staal's line to match-up against the Flyers 3rd defensive pairing.
With the injuries Philadelphia has dealt with on the blueline and no Chris Pronger in the lineup Pittsburgh has a huge advantage here.
The Penguins special teams has been great all season long. Their power play is 5th in the NHL (19.7%) and 3rd in penalty kill (87.8). With numbers like that all Marc Andre Fleury has to do is be efficient in goal for Pittsburgh.
Why Philadelphia will win:
If there is one team in the NHL that doesn't fear the Penguins it's Philadelphia.
The Flyers were 4-2 this season against Pittsburgh and their offense matches up well with the Penguins. They finished 3rd in the NHL in goals scored with 264.
Philadelphia was also tied for 5th in the NHL with Pittsburgh for the best power play at 19.7%. Finding the back of the net should not be a problem for the Flyers.
One thing Philadelphia will definitely try to do is flex their muscle early in the series and establish a physical presence. Yes it's a dangerous strategy to employ against a team like Pittsburgh but if they can get inside their head the Flyers have an excellent chance to win this series.
Prediction:
This will be the best series in the 1st round as these two teams do not like each other. All you have to do is look back at their meeting on April 1st to see what I mean.
While both teams are equal on offense the Penguins are better defensively and have better goaltending than Philadelphia.
Plus the Flyers were the most penalized team in the NHL this season with 382 penalty minutes. Against a team like Pittsburgh it's only a matter of time before playing that style of hockey will cost you.
Philadelphia may have won the season series 4-2 but in the playoffs I think Pittsburgh turns the tables.
Penguins in 6.
Western Conference:
1. Vancouver Canucks (51-22-9 111 points) vs. 8. Los Angeles Kings (40-27-15 95 points)
Why Vancouver will win:
They were the best team in the NHL during the regular season. Most of the attention was on the New York Rangers and the St. Louis Blues but when the season was said and done the Canucks were left holding the President's Trophy.
It will be the second year in a row the Canucks will have home ice for the entire postseason and much like last year this is a deep roster that is poised to have a strong playoff run.
Vancouver was 4th in the NHL in goals scored (249) and goals allowed (198) with a goal differential of +51, 3rd best overall. On special teams the Canucks power play was 4th best in the NHL (19.8 %) while their penalty kill was 6th best (86%).
With a balance like that you can see why Vancouver is the top seed in the west.
Why Los Angeles will win:
The Kings have a goaltender who can steal a series.
While he doesn't get the attention that Henrik Lundqvist, Tim Thomas or Roberto Luongo does in net Jonathan Quick has a great season in goal for Los Angeles.
Quick led the NHL in shutouts with 10. He was second in the NHL in GAA with 1.95 and finished 5th in the league in save percentage (.929) and wins (35)
Quick's play in net will be the key for Los Angeles to win the series. The Kings scored the second fewest goals in the NHL this season with 194. Only the Minnesota Wild scored fewer goals with 177.
Prediction:
While Los Angeles has an edge in goal, Vancouver is a much better and deeper team than the Kings.
If Los Angeles can keep it a low scoring game then the Kings have a chance to win the series. I can see that happening in a couple games but I don't think Los Angeles can contain the Canucks offense for the entire series.
Canucks in 6.
2. St, Louis Blues (49-22-11 109 points) vs. 7. San Jose Sharks (43-29-10 96 points)
Why St. Louis will win:
The Blues won 30 games on home ice this season. Only Detroit had more home win with 31. Also St. Louis did well this year against the Sharks winning all four games with two of those being shutouts.
What works in the Blues favor is the goaltending tandem of Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak.
Elliott led the NHL in goals against (1.56) and save percentage (.940) while Halak was fifth and seventh respectively. My guess is Halak gets the start in goal for the series because of his playoff experience.
With the tandem of Halak and Elliott and coach Ken Hitchcock's attention to defense St. Louis gave up the fewest goals in the NHL this season with 165.
Why San Jose will win:
While the Sharks aren't as deep offensively as they have been in previous seasons they do have three forwards that reached the 30 goal mark this season.
Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski tied for the team lead in goals with 31 while Patrick Marleau finished one goal behind them. They'll need to continue to produce against a stingy Blues defense.
The one forward that needs to produce if San Jose is to win the series is Joe Thornton.
While he has been the poster boy for the Sharks underachievement in the post-season his playoff numbers have been pretty solid. He'll need to be the best player for San Jose if they are to win this series.
Prediction:
Logic tells me that with the way both teams have played this season St. Louis should win this series skating away.
However as I wrote earlier strange things can and usually do happen in the 1st round of the playoffs and chances are it will happen in the 2-7 matchup.
The Sharks are in the same situation as Washington where for once there are the underdog and nobody is giving them a chance to win. With no pressure on them I going to play a hunch and pick San Jose to pull the upset.
Sharks in 7.
3. Phoenix Coyotes (42-27-13 97 points) vs. 6. Chicago Blackhawks (45-26-11 101 points)
Why Phoenix will win:
Coach Dave Tippett finds a way to get the most out of the Coyotes every season.
They aren't the most talented team on the ice but they do the little things very well and are capable of outworking anybody on the ice. That alone gives Phoenix a chance to win the series.
The Coyotes finished the season by winning seven of their final ten games which was enough to get them their first division title since 1979. A lot of that was due to the play of Mike Smith in goal.
Smith had a career high in GAA (2.21) save percentage (.930) and shutouts with eight. If he continues to play this well phoenix has an excellent chance to move into the 2nd round for the first time since 1987.
Why Chicago will win:
They are a more talented team than Phoenix.
Granted being the more talented team doesn't guarantee playoff success but the Blackhawks do know what it takes to win in the playoffs. That's something the Coyotes can't say.
Another thing in the favor of Chicago is the return of their captain Jonathan Toews. Toews has missed the last 23 games with concussion like symptoms. He is expected to be back in the lineup by at least game two of the series.
Prediction:
I like Chicago in this series mainly because I don't trust Mike Smith in goal for the Coyotes.
While Smith has had a great season in net this is the same goaltender that could never claim the job in Tampa Bay. I have trouble believing that he is the answer in Phoenix.
Smith is going to have to be the best player in the series if the Coyotes are to advance. With a healthy Toews back in the lineup and an offense that can score goals I don't see that happening.
Blackhawks in 6.
4. Nashville Predators (48-26-8 104 points) vs. 5. Detroit Red Wings (48-28-6 102 points)
Why Nashville will win:
Because the future of the franchise depends on it.
That may sound a little extreme but defenseman Ryan Suter is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season while defenseman Shea Weber is a restricted free agent after the following season.
A strong playoff run could entice both players to sign long term deal to stay in the Hockeytonk. A first round exit could mean the end of both Suter and Weber in Nashville.
Why Detroit will win:
Because they are the Red Wings.
They have been the measuring stick in the NHL for the last 21 years. Here's an example of how good Detroit has been. This will only be the 3rd time in the last 21 years that the Red Wings have opened the playoffs on the road.
Detroit also had the best home record in the NHL finishing 31-7-3. While they don't have home ice in this series all the Red Wings have to do is get a split in the first two games before heading back to the Motor City. If they can pull that off it's a huge edge for Detroit.
Most importantly they are getting healthy at the right time.
The Red Wings were without Nicklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk, Jimmy Howard, and Darren Helm throughout the month of March. Lidstrom, Datsyuk and Howard all returned to the lineup before the end of the year and Helm is set to rejoin the lineup tonight. A Detroit team that is healthy is a very difficult team to beat.
Prediction:
This was the hardest series for me to pick.
Anyone who knows me knows how much I love the Red Wings. Going into the playoffs all I wanted was for them to stay healthy, have home ice in the 1st round and avoid playing Nashville.
Instead they were plagued by injuries which cost them home ice in the 1st round and now they have to play in Nashville.
Detroit is good enough to beat Nashville. However Nashville has been playing at such a high level that it's hard for me to pick against the Predators.
Nashville GM David Poile built this team for a strong playoff run this season. I think it starts with the Predators knocking the Red Wings out of the playoffs.
Predators in 7.
No comments:
Post a Comment