Thursday, June 21, 2012

Summer in the NHL: A Look Ahead At The Off-Season

With the NHL Draft taking place in Pittsburgh on Friday night that can only mean one thing. The NHL off-season is officially underway.

If you like a flurry of transactions, rumors and activity then the next three weeks should be entertaining as all 30 teams try to improve themselves before the start of the 2012-2013 season.

Here is a list of things to keep your eye on in this summer.

The Sale of The Phoenix Coyotes: 

Yes, I know that this has been an ongoing topic for the last couple years and yes I know the storyline is the same with the cast of characters changing each time it's retold.

But as long as it's on the table this story can't be ignored. Especially when whatever happens with Phoenix effects what happens with how the NHL teams are realigned.

Former San Jose Sharks CEO Greg Jamison is in line right now to purchase the struggling franchise. He is the third person to attempt to purchase the franchise and keep them in Arizona since former owner Jerry Moyes filed for bankruptcy in 2009.

Numerous issues with the lease at Jobing.com Arena, the Glendale City Council & the Goldwater Institute have made purchasing the Coyotes a nightmare. The NHL has done everything they can to keep the franchise in the desert.

With the schedule being released earlier today the Coyotes will be in Phoenix for another season. If Jamison can get a deal done then this saga will end. If Jamison fails you have to wonder if the NHL will finally throw up their hands in frustration and start looking for a buyer outside of Phoenix. 

Tim Thomas's Sabbatical: 

One story that happened during the Stanley Cup Playoffs that I didn't get a chance to write about is Boston Bruins goaltender Tim Thomas announcing on Facebook that he is taking a year off to spend time with his family.

I can't really blame him. After the playoff run he had in 2011 and the controversy surrounding him after not going to the White House to see the President a little time away isn't a bad thing.

What I found interesting is he has every intention of coming back in 2013-2014 and playing in goal for Boston as well as playing for Team USA in the Winter Olympics.

OK then.

If Thomas does indeed sit out the year he will be 39 when he returns to the NHL. For most players that is considered the twilight of their career. If I was Bruins GM Peter Charelli I would feel better if Thomas was 29 instead.

With Thomas gone the job in net will fall to Tuukka Rask who has the tools and skill set to be a number one goaltender. However he is also best remembered for being the goaltender when Boston blew a 3-0 series lead against Philadelphia in 2010.

This coming season Rask will have every opportunity to show he is capable of being the man in net. If he does succeed the question is what becomes of Thomas?

If Rask does stake claim to being the number one goaltender then I don't see any reason why the Bruins would bring Thomas back. And even though he has won a Stanley Cup I'm not sure what the trade market would be for a 39 year old goaltender.

I remember Dominik Hasek trying to make a comeback as a 38 year old goaltender after he retired back in 2003. His comeback didn't go as well as planned. I can't help but seeing the comparisons between Hasek and Thomas.

The other question is would Boston even want Thomas back? The core of the Bruins looks to be a pretty tight knit group. I could see some players looking at Thomas taking a year off as a sense of abandonment. His return could disrupt a good locker room much like Hasek did when he returned to Detroit in 2003-2004.

If Thomas didn't return to Boston I'm sure some team would take a chance on him as a Stanley Cup winning goaltender rarely become available. However there is no guarantee that Thomas in 2013-2014 would be as good as he was in 2011.

As for wanting to play in the 2014 Olympics, the NHL & the IIHF have yet to reach an agreement to send the NHL players over to Sochi. If no agreement is reached and NHL players do not take part in the Olympics it wouldn't surprise me if Thomas just plays in the Winter Games and doesn't return to the NHL. 

The Trade Market: 

The eve before the NHL draft usually kicks off the trading season as teams start better positioning themselves for next year.

At the trade deadline the big prize was Rick Nash. Columbus didn't receive an offer for him they liked so they held on to him. As the draft approaches Rick Nash is available again and this time more teams are interested as they have all summer to adjust their salary cap instead of just a couple days before the trade deadline.

I'm not going to try and narrow down the teams that are interested in Rick Nash. When a player like him becomes available all teams have an interest. What is comes down to is are you willing to pay the price to get a player like Nash.

My understanding is the asking price for Nash involves any combination of a goaltender, two impact players with one being a forward, prospects and draft picks.

That's a lot to ask for a player who has yet to win a post-season game.

GM Scott Howson has no choice but to ask for a kings ransom for Nash if he is going to rebuild the Blue Jackets. Howson may have a certain price in mind that is just below what he is asking for. By setting the bar high he just might get one team to meet the price he has in mind.

It's all part of the negotiations. By the end of the weekend Rick Nash should be elsewhere. Where that is remains to be seen.

The other name on the trade market that has my attention is Vancouver goaltender Roberto Luongo.

After being benched for Cory Schneider in Game 3 of the Canucks series against Los Angeles Luongo requested a trade. Vancouver looks to be more than willing to oblige as they would love nothing more than to shed that contract from their payroll.

However no NHL team is going to take on Luongo's contract without Vancouver taking back a high salary player in any deal that is reached.

The most common rumor being talked about is Luongo to Toronto for defenseman Mike Komisarek. From a contract standpoint that makes sense but more players or draft picks would have to be added to make it a fair deal.

I get the sense Vancouver would like to get this over with before July 1st as Schneider is a restricted free agent. Trading Luongo would free up salary so the Canucks can resign Schneider.

A couple other players who are being mentioned in trades are Pittsburgh center Jordan Staal and Anaheim forward Bobby Ryan.

Staal, who is a free agent after this upcoming season just turned down a ten year extension from the Penguins. At this time Pittsburgh isn't shopping Staal but GM Ray Shero is receiving a ton of phone calls about him.

As for Ryan, his name is being kicked around once again. What happens with Ryan may either be related to or effect what happens with Nash as both are young power forwards every team covets. 

Free Agency: 

If you want an impact player but don't have the pieces to trade to get that player then be prepared to open up your checkbook as free agency is the way to go.

The two big prizes on the market are Nashville defenseman Ryan Suter and New Jersey forward Zach Parise.

As to where both players are going to go I have no idea. Only the players and their agents know what they are looking for.

What I do know is the Detroit Red Wings have about $20 Million in cap space to spend and they have a huge hole on their blueline with the retirement of Nicklas Lidstrom and Brad Stuart going to San Jose. I have to believe they will do everything they can to get Suter.

As for where Parise will end up? If you have a lot of cap space, a need for a top six forward and are a legit Stanley Cup contender then you have an excellent chance to get Parise.

Because of issues with team ownership I'm not convinced he returns to New Jersey. If he does leave the Devils keep an eye on Detroit, Minnesota, Colorado, Carolina and Los Angeles. 

The CBA: 

Unfortunately everything I wrote about above may be irrelevant if a new CBA isn't reached.

The current deal expires on September 15th. Last month both sides had the option to extend it for another year or to renegotiate. The owners decided to renegotiate.

Because of this there is a threat of a work stoppage. However I don't believe it will be as bad as the one that cancelled the 2004-2005 NHL season.

The main issue during the 04-05 lockout was the implementation of a salary cap. The owners were going to get one no matter what. Even if it meant sacrificing a whole season.

This time around there is no overlaying issue like there was in 04-05. The main thing here looks to be how revenue is distributed between owners and players.

While the owners want to figure out a better way to redistribute revenue the players want to be treated as equal partners in negotiations. That's why realignment was shelved for a year. 

What causes me concern is the NHLPA is now being led by Donald Fehr. Yes, the same Donald Fehr that led the MLBPA during the 1994 strike that cancelled the World Series.

He is stubborn but known for getting everything he can for his players. If you are an NHLPA member you want him on your side. NHL commissioner Gary Bettman can be just as stubborn though.

Negotiations between Fehr and Bettman could make negotiations between Bettman and previous NHLPA head Bob Goodenow in 04-05 look like a playground disagreement.

While I would like to be optimistic that a deal is reached before training camp it doesn't look likely at this moment as neither side has begun labor negotiations.

But with business being good for the NHL and the shadow of the 04-05 lockout still hovering over the sport the last thing needed is a long work stoppage and both sides know that.

Something tells me a deal will be reached and there will be a season. It may not start until Thanksgiving but there will be a season.

After all too much is at stake to sacrifice another year.

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