Well, we are less than 48 hours away from the start of the Stanley Cup Finals. That can mean only one thing, Prediction time. Both teams have waited a long time to lift Lord Stanley's Cup over their head and both teams on paper match up pretty evenly. Anyone who knows me knows I'm cheering for Chicago. I make no secret about that. But do I think they can win? How much of a chance does Philly have? There is only one way to break it down. Let's go to the tale of the tape.
Forwards:
It's no surprise that the captains for each team (Jonathan Toews for Chicago & Mike Richards for Philadelphia) are the leading scorers this post-season. Toews has 26 points while Richards has 21.Toews's teammate Patrick Kane is 3rd on the list with 20 points while Philly's Danny Briere is 6th with 18 points.
Briere lead the Flyers with nine goals this post-season while Chicago's Dustin Byfuglien leads the Blackhawks with eight goals.
Both teams top two lines match up with each other very well but as we get down to the 3rd & checking lines, Chicago has a little more scoring depth from their grinders than Philadelphia does from theirs.
Edge: Chicago
Defense:
Philadelphia acquired Chris Pronger from Anaheim this off-season to anchor their blueline. This will be his 3rd Stanley Cup Final since the lockout. (Lost with Edmonton in 06, won with Anaheim in 07) He is paired with Matt Carle. Kimmo Timonen & Brayden Coburn make up the 2nd unit while Lukas Krajicek & Ryan Parent make up the 3rd unit.
Chicago is led on defense by Norris Trophy candidate Duncan Keith & Brent Seabrook, both of whom were key players this past Olympics for Team Canada. Niklas Hjalmarsson & Brian Campbell make up the 2nd pairing with Brent Sopel & Jordan Henrey are the 3rd group of defenseman.
Both teams have great defense but I give Chicago a slight edge because of the Keith & Seabrook pairing and the ability of Seabrook, Campbell & Hjalmarsson to move the puck up the ice. The only Flyer that can match up with them is Timmonen. If either Keith or Seabrook gets hurt then this swings in favor of Philly.
Edge: Chicago
Stanley Cup Fun Fact #1:
Since seeding the playoff teams in 1994, no team seeded lower than 4th has won a Stanley Cup after a full season of play. (New Jersey won the Cup as a number 5 seed in the lockout shortened season of 1995.)
Goaltending:
I am a firm believer that the team with the best goaltender usually wins the Stanley Cup. This year I may have to rethink that because the goalies for each team are not the goalies they started the season with.
Antti Niemi was not chosen by Chicago as the back-up to Cristobel Huet until the end of the preseason. Niemi started alternating games with Huet until Quennville chose him to be the starter for the post-season.
Michael Leighton didn't even start the season with Philadelphia. He was claimed off of waivers from Carolina back in December and became the starter after Ray Emery was lost for the season with a hip injury.
Both goalies have played well and made the most of their opportunities. I'm going to give a slight edge to Niemi. Leighton hasn't really been challenged offensively yet this post-season while Niemi looked pretty good against Vancouver & San Jose.
Edge: Chicago
Coaching:
Joel Quennville has won a President's Trophy & reached a Conference Finals with St Louis. He led Colorado to two first round playoff series victories in three seasons in Denver. This is his second season in Chicago. He has made the Conference Finals both seasons and this is his first Stanley Cup Finals appearance.
Peter Laviolette was hired by Philadelphia on December 5th. Before coming to Philadelphia he led Carolina to the Stanley Cup back in 2006 and led the New York Islanders to back to back playoff appearances in 2002 & 2003.
I think Quennville is a great coach but I am giving a slight edge here to Laviolette only because he has his name on the Cup and knows what it takes to win.
Edge: Philadelphia
Stanley Cup Finals Fun Fact #2:
This is the 5th time since 1994 a team seeded 6th or lower has reached the Finals. That doesn't mean it will be a quick series. Each time it has gone at least six games.
Power Play:
Chicago has scored on 22 percent of their power plays this post-season. Toews leads the team with five power play goals while Forwards Dustin Byfuglien & Patrick Sharp have each chipped in three.
Philadelphia has scored on 20 percent of their power plays this post-season. Simon Gagne leads Philly with four power play goals while, Pronger, Briere & Claude Giroux each have three.
As I said earlier both teams are loaded with goal scorers. I'll give Chicago a slight edge here because of Byfuglein's play in front of the net.
Edge: Chicago.
Penalty Kill:
Chicago's penalty kill is at 86.6 percent this post-season. Kane, Sharp, & Dave Bolland each have a short-handed goal.
Philadelphia's penalty kill is at 87 percent. Mike Richards has the only short-handed goal for the Flyers.
I'll give the edge here to Philly mainly because I think that Richards may be the best penalty killer on the planet right now.
Edge: Philly
Stanley Cup Finals Fun Fact #3:
Chicago forward Marian Hossa is in his 3rd straight final with his third different team. He lost with Pittsburgh in 2008 & Detroit in 2009.
Playoff adversity:
Chicago was facing a 3-2 deficit in the closing moments of Game 5. Marian Hossa was sent to the penalty box for a five minute boarding major. Instead of capitalizing on it Nashville surrendered the tying goal to Patrick Kane with under 14 seconds to play.
Nashville still had a four minute power play in overtime but failed to capitalize. Hossa left the penalty box and ended up scoring the game winning goal in overtime allowing Chicago to take charge of the series.
Philadelphia lost the first three games of the series to Boston before rallying to win the next three. Philly then trailed 3-0 in game seven before rallying for four unanswered goals capped off by Simon Gagne's power play goal late in the 3rd period.
Edge: Philadelphia. Chicago had at most two more games to straighten everything out if Nashville would have held on to win. Philly had no margin for error.
Home Ice:
Chicago's United Center is experiencing a hockey renaissance as over 19,000 fans fill it up each night. The Hawks are 5-3 this post-season at home.
Philadelphia is 7-1 at the Wachovia Center this post-season and they play in front of what some NHL players call the most intimidating fan base in the league.
Edge: Chicago only because they are 6-1 on the road this post-season. Playing in Wachovia Center shouldn't phase them.
Stanley Cup Finals Fun Fact #4:
This is the 3rd season in a row that the road team in the Winter Classic has played in the finals. (Pittsburgh in 2008, Detroit in 2009) Both times the Winter Classic team has lost.
Final Prediction: The Philadelphia team we have seen this post-season is the Philadelphia team a lot of people expected to see during the regular season. They are playing their best hockey at the right time of the year. That being said I would still like to see them beat a good team in a seven game series.
They beat a New Jersey team that is a shell of it's former self, a Boston team with little to no scoring punch & a Montreal team that overachieved through the 1st two rounds. They'll finally have that chance against a Chicago team that made it look easy against a talented San Jose squad. This will be a hard fought series but I think Chicago is the more talented team.
Prediction: Blackhawks in five games.
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