Sunday, May 13, 2012

Conference Finals Preview


And then there were four.

After New York's 2-1 win over Washington the Conference Finals are finally set to begin.

Out east you have the New Jersey Devils playing the New York Rangers in a match-up that will feature several flashbacks to 1994 when they last met in the conference finals.

We'll get to that series later in the column but we will start our coverage in of all places the desert. That looks so strange to type in a hockey column. 

8. Los Angeles Kings vs. 3. Phoenix Coyotes. 

When the playoffs started hockey fans thought teams like Vancouver, St. Louis, Detroit or Nashville would be here playing for the Clarence Campbell Bowl.

Instead you have a red-hot Kings team that has beat the top two seeds in the conference in convincing fashion taking on a Coyotes teams that has played just as well. 

Why Los Angeles Will Win: 

There are two things I like about the Kings in the match-up.

The first thing is their goaltender Jonathan Quick. Quick has a GAA this post-season of 1.55 and a save percentage of .949 which is the best of the four remaining goaltenders.

Most importantly Quick's play in net gives Los Angeles confidence that if they can get just one goal that is all they need to win the game.

The other thing I like is how the top six forwards for the Kings have played in the first two rounds.

Los Angeles came into the playoffs scoring the fewest goals of any of the playoff teams. In the playoffs they are averaging three goals per game and the reason for that is their top six forwards are scoring goals when the team needs one.

Leading the way is Kings captain Dustin Brown who leads the team in goals with six and points with eleven. He has elevated his play to a level I have never seen him play at.

Once thought of as a captain who had the "C" because somebody had to have it Brown has led by example on the ice with his play and the Kings have followed suit as they dispatched of both the Canucks and Blues in quick fashion. 

Why Phoenix Will Win: 

If you have followed the playoffs you'll know the Coyotes have a good goalie of their own in Mike Smith.

Signed as a reclamation project in the off-season Smith made the most of his opportunity finishing with a GAA of 2.21 and a save percentage of .930.

In the playoffs Smith has continued his great play. His GAA this post-season is 1.77 and his save percentage is .948. Only Quick has had better stats in goal. Smith also has two shutouts which leads all goaltenders this post-season.

Another reason to like the Coyotes is because of coach Dave Tippett.

Tippett is one of those coaches that is able to get the most out of his team. It's no easy task considering that a shadow has been hanging over the team the last few seasons as to whether the coyotes would be moving from the Phoenix area.

While that issue has yet to be resolved Tippett has been able to get his players to focus on the ice where they can control the action dispatching of Chicago in six and Nashville in five games. 

Prediction: 

Both teams have played well in the playoffs winning their series convincingly. In a match-up like this it comes down to goaltending.

As well as Smith has played I still don't completely trust him in net. I have a hard time believing a goaltender who couldn't seize the job last year in Tampa Bay can be four wins away from playing for the Stanley Cup. Facing the Kings forwards will be his toughest test this post-season.

Meanwhile Quick has made it look easy against Vancouver and St. Louis. I don't think this series will be easy for him as Tippett's team will overachieve but in the end I think the Kings will return to the finals for the first time in 18 years. 

Kings in six. 

6. New Jersey Devils vs. 1. New York Rangers: 

This series will bring back numerous flashbacks of 1994 with the names Messier and Matteau being mentioned Ad Naseum however these teams couldn't be any different than they were seventeen years ago.

The Devils are a team that applies an aggressive forecheck to establish puck possession while the Rangers are a team built on goaltending and defense. 

Why New Jersey Will Win: 

The Devils used their forecheck to shut down and frustrate a Philadelphia offense that looked invincible against Pittsburgh in the first round. They should be able to do the same against a Rangers team that isn't as strong offensively as the Flyers were.

Another thing New Jersey has going for them is they are getting production from all four lines with at least seven players scoring a game winning goal.

While the likes of Scott Stevens or Scott Niedermayer no longer skate for the Devils they still have veterans Martin Brodeur who has won three Stanley Cups and Patrik Elias who has won two with the franchise.

They have been down this road before and their experience should provide a calming influence and leadership for a roster of players who are making it this far for the first time. 

Why New York Will Win: 

The more I watch this Rangers team the more they remind me of the 2004 Tampa Bay Lightning. That's not coincidental as John Tortorella was the coach of that team with Brad Richards playing a key role at forward.

In New York they are doing the same thing as Tampa Bay did back in 2004 mixing timely goal scoring with goaltending and defense.

Let's start in net with Henrik Lundqvist. His GAA is 1.68 and he has a save percentage of .937 through fourteen games. His stats may not be as good as Quick and Smith and his pedigree is nowhere near Brodeur but right now out of the four goaltenders there is no one I would want more in net than Lundqvist.

Another thing to like about the Rangers is their core of defenseman which is deeper than New Jersey. Four of their six regular defenseman are on the positive side of the plus/minus ratings.

While the Devils can skate four solid lines John Tortorella doesn't need to worry about which defensive pairing he has to match up against because his defenseman are good enough to play against any line they go up against.

Up front New York's best forwards have been their best forwards. Brad Richards leads the team in goals and points (6G, 5A) while Marian Gaborik has four goals followed by Ryan Callahan with three. The biggest x-factor in all this might be rookie Chris Krieder.

Fresh out of winning a national championship at Boston College Krieder has stepped into the line-up replacing an injured Brian Boyle and Brandon Dubinsky to make an impact.

Krieder has two goals and an assist in the playoffs so far but he is being given quality minutes on the ice by Tortorella. That is something most coaches are hesitant to do with a rookie. Especially in the post-season. 

Prediction:

These two teams had a meeting back in March that looked like a scene out of the movie SlapShot.




I don't think you will see anything like that in the Conference Finals with a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals at stake but I do expect this series to be rough and I do expect it to be physical.

For the Devils this is a chance to get payback for 1994. Yes I know they have won three Stanley Cups since then but the Rangers have eliminated them in three of the last four playoff series.

As much as I love New Jersey for knocking Philadelphia out of the playoffs I think the Rangers are a more talented team overall. In the end I think history repeats itself. 

Rangers in 7.

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