Stanley Cup Finals Preview

Raise your hand if when the NHL season started you had the Los Angeles Kings playing the New Jersey Devils for the Stanley Cup.

Yeah, that's what I thought.

Back in October Los Angeles was thought to be at most the 5th best team in a loaded Western Conference while New Jersey was just coming off missing the playoffs for the first time since 1996.

But it's been a long journey from October to now and as it stands one of these two teams will hoist Lord Stanley's Cup. So who has the edge? There is only one way to break this down.

Let's go to the tale of the tape. 

Forwards: 

One reason why both of these teams are in the Stanley Cup Finals is because they can roll out four lines throughout an entire game no matter what the situation is.

The best forwards for Los Angeles have been Dustin Brown (7G, 9A) and Anze Kopitar (6G, 9A). Both players are a +13 on the ice which is the best for either team.

The Kings have also received nice contributions this post-season from Mike Richards (4G, 7A) Justin Williams (2G, 9A) and Dustin Penner (3G, 7A)

As for the 3rd and 4th lines for Los Angeles, they have been used in more of a shut down role where their forecheck smothers the opposition as they try to move the puck up the ice. They have provided quality minutes allowing the top two lines for the Kings to be productive when on the ice.

New Jersey's top forwards have been just as good as the Kings forwards. Ilya Kovalchuk leads all scorers in the playoffs with 18 points (7G, 11A) while Zach Parise and Travis Zajac are tied with Kovalchuk for the team lead in goals with seven.

Rookie Adam Henrique to me may be the most impressive forward in this series. He has three goals and eight assist with two of those goals being overtime game winners. He is a +9 on the ice which is the best among all Devils forwards.

The difference between the forwards for Los Angeles and New Jersey is while the Kings 3rd and 4th lines can forecheck the Devils 3rd and 4th lines can forecheck and score.

Against the Rangers the line of Ryan Carter, Steve Bernier and Stephen Gionta had four goals, five assists and were a +9 on the ice. That's pretty good production from a 4th line.

In fact you could make the case New Jersey really has two 3rd lines. Because of their bottom six I give the Devils the edge at forward.

Advantage: New Jersey. 

Defenseman: 

Let's start this by acknowledging that Los Angeles has the best defenseman in the series in Drew Doughty and it isn't even close.

This spring Doughty has two goals, eight assists and is a +10 on the ice. He is playing like a defenseman who will win numerous Norris Trophies before his career is over.

As for the rest of the Kings blueline, they have been pretty good too.

Los Angeles defenseman are a combined +36. The Kings worst defenseman from a statistical standpoint is Alec Matinez who has one assist and is a +2 on ice.

As for New Jersey they have actually received nice production from their blueline.

Bryce Salvador leads all defenseman in this series with 11 points (3G, 8A). That's pretty good for a guy who in the regular season had zero goals and nine assists in 82 games.

Marek Zidlicky has rejuvenated his career since joining New Jersey back in February. In the playoffs he has eight points (1G, 7A) and is a +1 on the ice. Not bad considering he only had 14 points with Minnesota and was a -6 on ice before being traded.

The rest of the Devils defense is a +30 combined on the ice. Both teams seem pretty similar here but I'll give the edge to Los Angeles because of Drew Doughty. New Jersey doesn't have anyone on their blueline that is nearly as good as him. 

Advantage: Los Angeles 

Goaltending: 

The Los Angeles Kings wouldn't even be in the playoffs let alone the Stanley Cup Finals if not for the play of Jonathan Quick in net.

In the regular season Quick had the best GAA with 1.95 and his save percentage was .929, which was second among goaltenders who played in 60 plus games.

In the playoffs Quick leads all goaltenders with a GAA of 1.54 and a save percentage of .946. He also has two shutouts. In my mind Quick right now is the favorite to win the Conn Smythe Award.

And then there is Martin Brodeur.

At 40 years old many thought his best days were behind him. All he has done this post-season is be solid in net when New Jersey has needed him to allowing the Devils to reach their 5th Stanley Cup Finals.

Brodeur this post-season has a GAA of 2.04 and a save percentage of .923 both of which are slightly up from his career average of a 2.01 GAA and a save percentage of .919.

From a stats standpoint the edge would have to go to Quick since he has played better in net. However when you factor in the intangibles I still like Brodeur.

I know a lot of people say that Brodeur isn't has sharp as he was ten years ago. Not many people are

However if Brodeur had lost a step like people say he has then he wouldn't have been able to outlast Florida in seven games, he wouldn't have been able to handle the Flyers offense and he wouldn't have been able to out duel Henrik Lundqvist.

Brodeur has answered every challenge he has faced this season. Quick is good but until he out duels Brodeur I have to give the edge here to Marty. 

Advantage: New Jersey 

Power Play: 

The Devils are 12 for 66 with the man advantage this post-season. Their power play percentage is 18.2 which is 4th best among playoff teams.

The Kings are 6 for 74 with the man advantage. Their power play percentage is 8.1. Only the Chicago Blackhawks were worse this post-season.

Los Angeles fans will tell me that Boston won the cup last year with a bad power play. To me that is the exception and not the norm.

The Kings need more production with the man advantage. The edge here goes to New Jersey and it isn't even close. 

Advantage: New Jersey 

Penalty Kill: 

Los Angeles has only given up five short-handed goals in 57 opportunities this post-season. More impressively the Kings have scored five times while a man down. Their PK percentage is 91.2, second best in the playoffs.

New Jersey has allowed 16 power play goals in 62 chances this post-season. Their PK percentage is 74.2 which is 13th among playoff teams. The Devils also have one short-handed goal to their credit.

I have to give the edge to Los Angeles here. Their five short-handed goals are the most a playoff team has scored since Detroit scored six back in 2008. 

Advantage: Los Angeles 

Coaching: 

Both Pete DeBoer and Darryl Sutter have done a remarkable job getting their teams to the finals. What's more remarkable is where each one was when the season started.

DeBoer had been let go by Florida as head coach and wasn't even on anybody's radar when he was hired by New Jersey back in July.

This season New Jersey finished with 102 points in the Atlantic, which is arguably the best division in the NHL, leading the Devils back to the playoffs after missing them the previous season.

In the playoffs his combination of a relentless forecheck and the ability to mix and match lines is why New Jersey is making their 5th appearance in the finals.

Sutter's job was a little more challenging since he took over in the middle of the season. Los Angeles was 15-14-4 before Sutter was hired as head coach just before Christmas. The Kings went 25-13-11 after he took over.

While Los Angeles didn't secure a playoff spot until the final days of the regular season the Kings have been on fire in the playoffs with a 12-2 record including a 9-0 record on the road.

Watching Los Angeles in the playoffs I see a lot of similarities between them and the 2004 Calgary Flames who were also coached by Sutter.

I'll give the edge here to Sutter only because he has accomplished more with the Kings in a shorter amount of time. 

Advantage: Los Angeles 

X-Factors: 

Los Angeles forward Simon Gagne has been out of the lineup since right after Christmas due to a concussion. He has been cleared to resume skating and could play at some point in the finals.

Gagne has reached the 20 goals mark seven times in his twelve year career. His possible inclusion in the lineup would give the Kings 3rd line a scoring spark they could use against New Jersey.

For the Devils I think rookie defenseman Adam Larsson could play a big role in the finals.

Larsson has only played in five playoff games scoring a goal against Philadelphia and has been a +3 on the ice. Larsson is 6'3, 220 pounds. His size could be used to try and neutralize the Kings forwards. 

Obscure Stanley Cup Fact: 

This will be the first finals under the current playoff format, which started in 1994, that neither finalist will have had home ice before the finals.

In fact only one team under the current format has ever won the Stanley Cup without having home ice in the playoffs. That would be the 1995 New Jersey Devils who did it in a 48 game season.

As a Red Wings fan I hope that is the last time I have to mention this series. Sadly I'm sure I'll refer to it a few more times before the playoffs are over. 

Previous meetings: 

These two teams played twice back in October. The Devils won a shootout in New Jersey 2-1 back on October 13th. Two weeks later the Devils won in Los Angeles by a score of 3-0.

It must be noted that Brodeur left the first meeting with a shoulder injury while both Brodeur and Quick did not play in goal in the second meeting. 

Prediction: 

Both teams have had a remarkable run to the finals. While according to seeding they are underdogs Los Angeles and New Jersey are nowhere close to that.

The Kings have been on one of the most impressive runs I have seen a team have. It reminds me of a combination of Anaheim in 2003 and Calgary in 2004.

Yet as good as Los Angeles has been in the playoffs I keep coming back to one thing I wrote back in my preview of the Devils series against Philadelphia in regards to New Jersey GM Lou Lamariello. 

"At the trade deadline the Devils GM had to make a decision, trade Zach Parise and get something in return for next season or keep Parise and try to make a run at the Stanley Cup.

One thing you need to understand about Lamariello, no GM has a better pulse of what his team is capable of.

The fact that he decided to keep Parise tells me he thinks the Devils can make a cup run." 

Well New Jersey has done just that. Because of this and the fact I like Brodeur in net better than Quick I'm predicting Devils fans will be fist pumping in Newark and all across the Garden State as New Jersey wins their 4th Stanley Cup in franchise history. 

Devils in 5.