Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Thanks For Playing: Nashville Predators



Each spring 16 NHL teams play for Lord Stanley's Cup. At the end one team is left holding the cup while the other 15 teams can only think of what might have been. 

This is about one of the 15 teams who wasn't so lucky. 

How They Finished: 

48-26-8   104 points  2nd in Central Division, 4th in Western Conference. Lost in five games in the 2nd Round. 

What Went Wrong: 

To answer this question you need to go back to game one and start in the 3rd period.

Nashville out shot Phoenix 16-1 in the 3rd period eventually tying the game on a power play goal by Martin Erat to force overtime.

In the overtime the Coyotes were able to withstand the onslaught by the Predators, winning the game on a goal by Ray Whitney.

From that point Phoenix was in complete control of the series. They outplayed Nashville in game two, winning by a score of 5-3, taking a 2-0 series lead back to the Music City.

Unfortunately for the Predators what happened off the ice ended up overshadowing the team.

Sometime between games one and two forwards Andrei Kostitsyn and Alexander Radulov were out way past the team curfew. As a result they were suspended in game three.

At the time of the suspension I wrote that Nashville should be able to overcome this for one game as they played most of the year without both players and were pretty good before they joined the team roster. That proved to be true as the Predators won game three by a score of 2-0.

After game three everyone thought the point had been made with Kostitsyn and Radulov and both players would be back in the lineup. That was not the case however as head coach Barry Trotz held both players out of the lineup for game four as well.

Phoenix would get the only goal of the game from Shane Doan in the 1st period and hold on for a 1-0 win and a 3-1 lead in the series. In a series where goals were hard to come by both players could have only helped Nashville in game four.

Kostitsyn and Radulov would return for game five but neither player would have an impact as Phoenix took a 2-0 lead thanks to goals by Derek Morris and Martin Hanzal. The Coyotes would go on to win the game 2-1 and the series 4-1. 

Where Do They Go From Here: 

When answering that question you need to start on the blueline with defenseman Ryan Suter. 

Suter is an unrestricted free agent this summer. The moves Nashville made at the trade deadline were to show him they were serious about making a run for a Stanley Cup hoping that would entice him to stay.

Instead the Predators are eliminated in the second round for the second year in a row. Suter will have to ask himself if Nashville is the best place to win a Stanley Cup. 

Suter made $3.5 million last season. On the open market he can probably can make twice as much over the next six to seven years.

The good news for Nashville is their projected cap space going into next season is just over $32 million. If Suter wants to stay in Nashville they are able to pay him the money.

The only problem for the Predators is if they commit a lot of money to Suter what does that do for his partner on the blueline Shea Weber?

Weber is a restricted free agent who made $7.5 million last season. The scenario that should concern Predators fans is a team signing Shea Weber to an offer sheet forcing Nashville to either match the offer or receive draft picks as compensation.

If you look at their salary cap situation right now the Predators have only twelve players under contract for next season. I don't see Nashville addressing any of their other free agents until they figure out what happens with Suter or Weber. A good chuck of that $32 million in cap space will belong to one of the two defenseman.

The best case scenario for the Predators is that Suter decides to stay in the Music City before July 1st allowing Nashville to focus on their other free agents. History shows however that once you get this close to free agency, you test the market to see what your worth is.

If Nashville are able to keep both defenseman then they are a threat once again to contend for the Stanley Cup. if they keep one of the two they are probably still at worst a playoff team. If they lose both then the Predators will have to fight for a spot in the playoffs next year.

I don't see Nashville losing both Weber and Suter in the off season but I also don't see both of them returning next year. I'll have a better idea of Nashville next year when I know which defenseman stays with the team.

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